• Regime: exiting Quad 2, tipping into Quad 3 — growth slowing while inflation re-accelerates — with Quad 4 dominant across 2027.
• Positioning: overweight the slowing-quad overlap — gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis; energy and power are a Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry.
• The Fed is the swing factor: a hold is about 90% priced for October 28 and the December language is the event; the 10-year Treasury sits at 4.99% and high-yield spreads at 337bp.

• Brent below ~$100, sustained — the inflation leg of Quad 3 weakens
• Brent above ~$120 — the inflation shock deepens; defense goes up a gear
• December FOMC language — whether the hiking cycle is credibly over
• Two more soft payrolls — the growth slowdown is confirmed, Quad 4 arrives early
• Hyperscaler 2027 cap ex guidance — the AI build-out’s trajectory, and the power trade with it

• Capitulation Score: 2 / 100 — not armed
• The Washout Watch only arms when the S&P 500 is at least 8% below its 52-week high; at these levels it isn’t
• A score of 70+ would mark a washout worth buying; 85+ is historic
• Today it says: no panic, no capitulation, no signal

Q3 earnings season: GOOD and accelerating — 73.5% of 166 graded reporters beat, guidance balance +58. Full scoreboard on the Earnings tab.

• Beat rate 73.7% — 123 beat / 24 met / 20 missed of 167 graded reporters (Tier 1 desk verdicts: 70.9% of 79; Tier 2 secondary: 76.1% of 88)
• Guidance balance +59 — 71 raised vs 12 cut (17 maintained, 67 not given or not stated) — the forward gauge is strongly positive
• Second half hotter — Oct 22–29 reporters: 76.9% beats, guidance +45 · Oct 13–21: 67.8% beats, guidance +14

• Census: 265 US-listed companies with market cap ≥ $5B reported Oct 13–29 (pre-market cutoff) — 161 graded (60.8%), 104 ungraded; the tracked 310-name universe covers 105 of them (39.6%). Biggest reporters outside the tracked universe: WFC, LIN, C, KLAC, T, STX, WDC, VLO, FTNT, BMY
• Two evidence tiers, never blended silently: Tier 1 (T1) = desk verdicts from the earnings radar’s written summaries (79 reporters); Tier 2 (T2) = summary-level grades from reported-vs-consensus coverage (88). Totals above show the combined figure with the tier split in the first bullet
• Magnitude: the average of EPS surprise % and revenue surprise % vs consensus (desk figures for Tier 1, reported surprises for Tier 2; where only one leg is published, the magnitude is that leg). Quantified for 85 of 167 graded reporters — the rest list at the foot of their group, by date. Bucket membership follows the desk/source verdict; a mixed (met) print can carry one leg outside ±2%
• Stock since print: price return from the pre-print close to the 2026-10-29 close — for pre-market (BMO) prints the anchor is the prior close; for after-close (AMC) prints it is the report-day close, so the first close inside the window is the first close that could react. Computed for 163 of 167 reporters (4 release slots unconfirmed, 1 non-US listing)
• Sector read rule: GOOD = beat rate ≥60% and guidance balance ≥0 · BAD = beat rate ≤40%, or a negative guidance balance with misses the plurality · otherwise NEUTRAL. Trend compares Oct 13–21 vs Oct 22–29 and needs ≥3 graded reporters in each half
• Blended EPS growth reference: FactSet via BloFin at Oct 16 (~9% of the S&P 500 reported): blended earnings growth +29.0%, 84% beat rate at that early point — labeled early-window, not a headline gauge
• As of: classifications through the Thu Oct 29 morning radar (Wed after-close + Thu pre-market); the ledger grows with each radar run and the reaction column refreshes nightly. Full per-company audit: research notes, earnings-season-scoreboard-2026-10-29

Dividend leads the month at +9.3% and Freedom-weighted EM trails at −8.8% — 15 of the 32 trackers rose in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) returned +0.7%. The AI-power basket is the leak: 6 of its seven trackers sit in the month’s worst twelve.

• Leader-to-laggard spread on the month: 18.1 points (HDV +9.3% vs FRDM −8.8%)

Factor Leadership Strength Score: 72 / 100 · Strong

Fish here:

• Dividend (HDV +9.3% — the best tracker on the tab this month)
• MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX +9.1%)
• Dividend (SCHD +8.4%)
• Low volatility (USMV +5.5%)
• Health care (PINK +5.3%)
• Value (IVE +5.2%)
• Large-cap equal weight (RSP +5.0%)
• International low-vol high dividend (LVHI +3.2%)
• US infrastructure development (PAVE +3.0%)
• Mid-cap (IJH +2.5%)
• Small-cap (IWM +1.8%)
• S&P 500 premium income (GPIX +1.0%)
• US (SPHQ +0.3%)
• Developed ex-U.S. (FNDF +0.2%)
• The only trackers up over the month — in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.7%

Do not fish here, for now:

• AI power basket — 6 of its seven trackers are in the month’s worst twelve
• Industrial renaissance (AIRR −2.1%)
• Growth (IVW −3.0%)
• Technology (XLK −3.0%)
• Speculative growth (ARKK −3.9%)
• Smart grid (GRID −4.4%)
• High beta (SPHB −4.8%)
• Energy transformation (PWRD −5.1%)
• Momentum — US (SPMO −5.9%)
• AI enablers & adopters (ALAI −6.7%)
• Emerging markets (GEM −6.9%)
• Emerging markets (EEM −6.9%)
• Freedom-weighted EM (FRDM −8.8% — now the worst tracker on the tab)

What identifies it — all four, or it is not on the list:

Firing now — confirmed emerging momentum:

• VRT (Vertiv Holdings Co.) — all four legs: −1.0% on the month, +14.5% over two weeks, volume 1.87×, close +26.6% off its ten-day low
• SKHY (SK hynix, Inc.) — all four legs: −13.2% on the month, +10.9% over two weeks, volume 1.40×, close +23.1% off its ten-day low
• APH (Amphenol Corp.) — all four legs: −2.7% on the month, +0.7% over two weeks, volume 1.39×, close +12.3% off its ten-day low
• GE (GE Aerospace) — all four legs: −1.4% on the month, +0.3% over two weeks, volume 1.36×, close +9.6% off its ten-day low
• CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) — all four legs: −1.9% on the month, +2.3% over two weeks, volume 1.18×, close +13.7% off its ten-day low

Screen: 300-brand universe and the 32 factor trackers, adjusted closes and share volume, Yahoo Finance daily data, October 29, 2026 close. The four legs: one-month return negative (calendar month, adjusted); up over both the last ten and last five sessions; five-session volume at least 1.15× the prior twenty sessions; close at least 2% off its ten-day closing low. Climax lows are fresh fifteen-session closing lows on the same volume test. A screen is a starting list, not a recommendation. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Answer: YELLOW

• Quad: Quad 2 tipping into Quad 3 — Quad 4 dominant across 2027
• Fed hawkish — about 90% priced for a hold at the Oct 27–28 meeting; December hike widely expected
• 10-year at ~4.99%; high-yield spreads 337bp (Amber)
• Geopolitics Elevated — Brent at $115.81; core PCE 3.0% year over year
• Against that: Recession Watch all-clear; business and credit cycles still Expansion
• Yellow, not red — slowing with re-accelerating inflation, not a recession call

Answer: YELLOW — long-term and intermediate green; the short term is on the line

• Long-term: green — S&P 500 close 7,722.60, 6.8% above its 10-month average of 7,230.78 (month-end closes through September 2026)
• The 200-day average sits near 7,299 — the close is above it
• Intermediate-term: green — the 50-day average (7,697.01) sits above the 150-day (7,450.91), by 3.3%: the intermediate structure is positive
• Short-term: on the line — 1.50 points (−0.02%) below the 25-day average (7,724.10), and above the 50-day (7,697.01): the pullback has stalled at the line — one close above the 25-day flips the short term up
• The 10-month rule says stay invested; the short-term tape says do not add risk aggressively
• Month-end tripwire: a close below about 7,274 on Friday, October 30 prints the first month-end close below the line — Market in Transition; a second consecutive close below it means a bear market and full defense

Answer: NO — RED / DEFENSIVE

• Green test, as specified: high beta (SPHB) outperforming low volatility (USMV), and discretionary (XLY) beating staples (XLP)
• High beta still fails at 1 month: SPHB −4.1% vs USMV +5.8%
• And XLY +6.8% vs XLP +9.4% on the site's 1-month sector-ETF set — staples still lead discretionary
• Dividend (SCHD +9.5%) and value (IVE +5.7% vs growth IVW −2.9%) confirm it
• This step stops the funnel from chasing high beta, even when a 3-year Sharpe table would look tempting — see Q7

Team picks first: Timeless names with a green Trend, in the top ponds

• Energy — green: XOM, CVX, EOG, LNG, SU, CNQ, SHEL, TTE, EQNR (9 of 10; WMB is yellow)
• Utilities — green: DUK, SO, AEP, IBDRY (NEE, SRE and NGG are yellow)
• Staples — green: COST, WMT, PG, CL, KO, MNST, PM, CART, OR, NESN (10 of 10)
• Analyst favs in these ponds: none in the latest public Baird actions.

Model tilt today: defensive, dividend, value, equal weight, U.S. overweight

• Overweight: USMV, SCHD / VIG, IWD, RSP, QLC
• Plus XLE, XLU and XLP for the sector ponds
• Underweight / avoid now: SPHB, SPMO, ARKK-type high beta and momentum
• Also avoid now: IWM small cap, and EEM / VWO emerging markets
• The opposite of what a 3-year Sharpe table alone would suggest for momentum — that conflict is intentional
• Resolved in favour of the 1-month funnel (Q3–Q5), not the 3-year table

Please read: The Optimal Portfolio is a hypothetical model portfolio, entered at the Friday, October 23, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Performance: since inception · Oct 25, 2026: +0.54% as of October 29, 2026 close — price-only, dividends excluded, weights as published.

Intermediate: 50-day average vs 150-day average (gap shown). Long-term: entry close vs its 10-month average. Short-term: close vs its 25-day average. Every non-cash holding passes the gate on computed figures, October 23, 2026. Gold, long-duration Treasuries and the team’s core income funds are all excluded this month — each fails at least one trend test, and the gate does not make exceptions.

• Follow along: the monthly Optimal Portfolio report and its episode of The Heat Map podcast carry every change, the CIO’s vote and the reasoning
• Tactical trading lives separately, on the Trading tab

Performance: Entered at the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 close — since-inception and today figures publish from the first completed close.

• Tracked day by day on the Investor tab as the Current Portfolio, with a monthly review podcast

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Price-only returns; dividends excluded.

Performance: Entered at the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 close — since-inception and today figures publish from the first completed close.

• Technology — 40%: Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) — the chip-design software duopoly; every advanced chip is designed on its tools · Constellation Software (CSU.TO) — thousands of niche software monopolies under one disciplined roof; compounding since 1995 · Keyence (6861.T) — factory automation sensors at software-like margins, debt-free · SAP (SAP.DE) — the enterprise software backbone of global business, compounding through its cloud transition
• Staples + healthcare — 30%: L’Oréal (OR.PA) — the global beauty compounder; staples-classified, still growing like a growth stock · Nestlé (NESN.SW) — the world’s food compounder; the sleep-at-night anchor · Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) — the metabolic-health franchise: GLP-1 demand with a capacity moat
• Discretionary, communication services + financials — 30%: Hermès (RMS.PA) — scarcity-priced luxury; the most durable pricing power in consumer · Tencent (0700.HK) — WeChat’s tollbooth on Chinese digital life: social, gaming, payments, cloud · MSCI (MSCI) — the index tollbooth; gets paid on the growth of global investing itself

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Price-only returns, each holding measured in its own listing currency; dividends excluded.

The hedge fund consensus is still a technology book — 45.6% of it — but a broader one: 25 elite books now feed it, financials carry 13.8%, and health care is on the board for the first time. Tracked live from the October 28, 2026 close.

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Holdings Neutralized weights · entered October 28, 2026

Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

Sector weights Where the consensus book sits

• Technology 45.6% — eight names; semiconductors alone (NVIDIA, TSMC, Micron, Intel, Applied Materials, Qualcomm) are 30.0%
• Financials tripled up: Visa (8.2%) is joined by Nu Holdings (3.5%) and Capital One (2.0%) for 13.8% — and health care is on the board for the first time, Natera at 5.5%
• Still nothing defensive: no staples, energy, utilities or real estate — the rest is communication services 17.9%, consumer discretionary 11.1% and industrials 6.1% (SPCX at its capped 5.0% plus Doncasters)

Read the flags before the weights:

• SPCX is capped, not crowned: its raw 16.67% average weight — still the list’s largest — is a mechanical artifact of two outsized books: D1 Capital initiated SpaceX at 61.91% of its reported book, and Atreides holds 32.58%. Flagged, not a signal — the overlay caps SPCX at 5%. Doncasters (DPC), a June 2026 IPO in this book, needed no cap: its raw average weight is under 1%
• 13F caveats: filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter-end and show long positions only — no shorts, and no record of anything the funds have bought or sold since June 30, 2026

Please read: Hedge Fund Favs is a hypothetical model portfolio — the tracked hedge funds’ 13F consensus, entered at the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A barbell built by rule, not opinion: the ten most expensive and the ten cheapest stocks in the brand universe — and neither end gets in without earnings momentum behind it. The cheap end is half energy; the expensive end is where the AI complex lives.

Performance: Entered at the Thursday, October 29, 2026 close — since-inception and today figures publish from the first completed close.

Holdings Equal weight · entered October 29, 2026 · valuation & momentum: screener, October 23, 2026

Value %ile = the screener’s Value Opportunities percentile (low = expensive). Earnings mom. %ile = the Revision Winners percentile (the gate: 0.50 or better). Forward EV/EBITDA is n/a for Berkshire Hathaway — financials rank on forward P/E inside the composite. SpaceX’s forward P/E (1,076.6×) reflects near-zero forward earnings: read it as “earnings not yet meaningful,” not as a precise price. Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

Sector weights Where the barbell sits

• Energy 25% — five names, every one from the cheap end (Marathon Petroleum, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Suncor, EOG), and every one with an earnings-momentum percentile of 0.73 or higher — the cheapest stocks in the universe whose estimates are rising fastest are refiners and producers
• Technology 25% — four from the expensive end (Circle, Cloudflare, Palantir, Datadog) plus Micron, the cheap end’s lone technology name at 5.1× forward earnings
• Financials 15% — Robinhood and Berkshire Hathaway at the expensive end, Capital One at the cheap end; the barbell’s two ends agree on almost nothing else

Please read: Momentum Barbell 20 is a hypothetical model portfolio — rules-based, entered at the Thursday, October 29, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Please read: Timeless portfolios are hypothetical model portfolios tracked live from October 23, 2026. Returns are equal-weighted and price-only (dividends excluded; no fees, taxes, or slippage). They do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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• The mix is the return. Decades of evidence say the asset mix — not any single pick — is what ties to long-term returns, so the mix is set first: 70% equities / 30% fixed income, restructured October 29, 2026 (the launch mix was 100% equity for one day; its record does not carry)
• Ballast and sizzle. Global Core Equity (42% of the portfolio) is the ballast — broad, quality-tilted, regime-directed. Around it, three equity satellites supply the sizzle: Secular Themes (7%), the Timeless 10 (10.5%) and Dividend Equity Income (10.5%)
• A bond barbell, not a bond blob. Safety & Certainty (10%) sits at the paid-at-par end; Hybrid Income Opportunities (20%) at the flexible-yield end — two different tools for one asset class, so the 30% does real work in either rate regime. XLK and SHLD are deliberately double-weighted — they sit in both Global Core and Secular Themes; that is a stated thematic tilt, not an accident

Global Core Equity — 42% of the portfolio · 60% of equities

• LOGO is the engine — active and regime-directed. The largest line in the core carries the global consumption themes — consumer spending, business innovation spending and government spending — through the brands that lead them; fully cyclical and growth-oriented when the regime pays for risk, positioned very defensively when it does not
• Broad exposure, deliberately tilted: S&P 500 (VOO), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and fundamental international developed markets (FNDF), with tilts to technology and AI (XLK), defense modernization (SHLD) and the quality factor (QLC) — the style factor work says quality is the smart pond
• Ballast and diversifiers, dynamic: quality, lower-volatility dividends (SCHD), a gold line (GLD) and a bitcoin line (HODL); the core’s allocations move when the regime warrants — more static than LOGO, never frozen

Secular Themes — 7% of the portfolio · 10% of equities

• The megatrend satellite — one ETF per big-picture theme: technology & AI (XLK), technology + power transformation (PWRD), defense modernization (SHLD), power-grid modernization (GRID), energy (XLE), the US industrial renaissance (AIRR), freedom-oriented emerging markets (FRDM — Taiwan and South Korea carry its AI supply chain) and monetary debasement (GBUG, active gold & silver miners)
• Its own ballast: health care innovation (PINK) also carries the aging-of-society theme, and health care defends — PINK + the low-volatility dividend line (SCHD) together are ~20.6% of the sleeve, the defensive block against the offensive themes
• Deliberate overlap: XLK and SHLD also sit in Global Core — the double weight is the point: these are the themes the portfolio leans into hardest

Timeless 10 — 10.5% of the portfolio · 15% of equities

• Blue-chip mega brands, technology-oriented, across the important consumption industries
• The longest-duration sleeve — it changes the least
• Dynamic at the margin: in a defensive regime it would likely trim technology and add consumer staples and health care

Dividend Equity Income — 10.5% of the portfolio · 15% of equities

• A global high-dividend portfolio that does not chase yield — quality first, because the style factor map says so
• Sector look-through picks the vehicles — chosen for their weight in the sectors the team favors: US high dividend (HDV, VYM), energy infrastructure income (MLPX), international low-volatility high dividend (LVHI), Nasdaq-100 premium income (GPIQ), and a small Treasury park (SHY)
• Dynamic: the sleeve follows the sectors the team favors — and can get very defensive if the regime says so

Safety & Certainty — 10% of the portfolio · the ladder end of the barbell

• The core is a ladder that pays at par: iBonds Dec term corporate ETFs (2028 · 2030 · 2034) are 58.6% of this sleeve — hold each rung to its date and the principal comes back at par, whatever fixed income does in between
• Active satellites sit around the core — an active multi-sector fund (XAGG), AAA floating-rate CLOs (JAAA) and emerging-market debt (XEMD) — tilting credit against interest-rate exposure as the regime turns
• The certainty end by design: lower volatility, lower beta, slightly less yield than Hybrid — stability is the job

Hybrid Income Opportunities — 20% of the portfolio · the engine end of the barbell

• A flexible yield engine: full-spectrum fixed income that chooses its curve position and its credit-vs-duration risk by regime — credit, including high yield and converts, when the regime pays for it; defensive duration when it does not
• Five bond funds plus a low-volatility dividend-equity valve (SCHD + LVHI, 16.2% of the sleeve, capped at 25%) for rate and inflation regimes that are hostile to bonds — the objective is high absolute yield plus total return
• The opposite tool from Certainty, on purpose: more yield, more flexibility, likely more turnover

This is a dynamic portfolio, not a static allocation. The allocations are regime-directed and will change over time according to the business cycle — that is the benefit of having a dynamic core. The fixed-income models flex with the regime too: Certainty’s satellites tilt around the ladder, and Hybrid moves along the curve and across credit quality.

Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

Please read: Current Portfolio is a hypothetical model portfolio — the example dashboard an investor on this program sees. It is a $1M combination of six sleeves — Global Core Equity (42%), Dividend Equity Income (10.5%), a Timeless 10 (10.5%), Secular Themes (7%), Safety & Certainty (10%) and Hybrid Income Opportunities (20%) — 70% equities, 30% fixed income. It launched Wednesday, October 28, 2026 as a 100% equity mix and was restructured to this 70/30 mix at the Thursday, October 29, 2026 close; tracking runs from the restructure and the launch mix’s one-day record does not carry. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Style box — where this portfolio sits, Morningstar-style

The read: the bond bucket blends to a ~5.4% SEC yield at ~2.9 years of duration — a paid-at-par ladder at one end, a flexible yield engine at the other, and almost no overlap in how the two ends make their money.

• At the whole-portfolio level the bucket contributes ~1.6 points of yield and ~0.9 years of duration — real income ballast that lets the 70% equity side stay invested through the cycle
• Why two models: Certainty is paid at par on a date — its return is known if you hold; Hybrid is managed — its return is earned by moving. Opposite tools for one asset class, so the bucket works in either rate regime
• Fund SEC yields as published Oct 2026 (iShares, Eaton Vance, TCW, BlackRock, BondBloxx, Janus Henderson); Certainty’s duration is modeled from fund fact sheets — the full per-model boards live on the Fixed Income tab

Current Portfolio Design

The components, the asset mix, and what every piece is there for. Timeless by design — re-recorded only when the portfolio’s components change.

The full factor map lives under Style Factors.

Caddie — drag, drop, done.

Four sessions in, the rules are paying for risk and charging for defense — momentum leads everything, and the defensive mirror trails even its own benchmark

• Momentum Leaders is the early leader by both measures: +6.50% since entry (the concentrated 10: +6.92%) against SPMO’s +3.54% — +2.95 pts of excess, +3.37 pts on the 10. The brand-universe build is outrunning the momentum index it follows
• Also ahead of their benchmarks: Risk-On (+2.62% vs SPY +0.93% — +1.69 pts), Cash Flow Aristocrats (+1.62 pts over COWZ — earned by falling less: the model is −0.14%, COWZ is −1.76%), Value Leaders (+0.89 pts over IWD) and Dividend Growth Leaders (+0.24 pts over VIG)
• The laggard is the mirror image: Risk-Off is −2.19% since entry and −1.64 pts behind USMV — the weakest return and the weakest excess on the tab. Quality Leaders (−0.94 pts vs QLC) is the other clear trailer, and the concentrated 10s of both dividend models lag their indexes (Dividend −1.44 pts, International Dividend −1.23 pts) while their 25s track them
• The honest frame: four sessions is the tape talking, not a track record — none of this is evidence the formulas work yet. The first real test is the January 29, 2027 data cut, when every model rebalances on fresh data and the early excess either survives a full quarter or it doesn’t

Please read: These are hypothetical model portfolios, entered at the Thursday, October 22, 2026 close and tracked from there. Entry prices are the listing’s local-currency close — the currency is shown next to every price. Operating metrics are from Fiscal.ai, pulled October 24, 2026, stated as Fiscal.ai reports them; they have not been checked against company filings, and each row shows its own metric period. *Forward revenue growth is a calculated figure — Fiscal.ai’s next-fiscal-year revenue estimate against the last reported year — not a Fiscal.ai field. Blank cells mean the data is not available, never zero. These portfolios do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source: model construction and Fiscal.ai operating metrics, export of October 24, 2026; entry prices October 22, 2026 close, local currency. Models rebalance every 90 days on data cuts at the end of January, April, July and October. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

59 / 100 · Neutral — at the top of the band. This market’s offer is two offers stapled together: one generous, one insulting.

Yields: Yahoo Finance Treasury yield indexes with the 2- and 7-year points from the U.S. Treasury daily par curve, October 29, 2026 close. High yield spread: 3.37%, October 26, 2026 (carried desk figure — FRED feed unreachable). This board refreshes with the site’s market updates.

How to read this:

• Every spread is measured over US Treasury bonds of similar maturity — the federal government’s risk-free rate
• A spread of 1.00% means those corporate bonds pay one percentage point more than Treasuries — investors demand extra yield for default risk
• AAA is the highest credit rating (the safest borrowers, the thinnest spread)
• BBB is the lowest investment-grade rating (the widest spread before ‘high yield’)

Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026: 0.00% as of October 29, 2026 close — price-only; bond funds pay income the price return does not capture.

Eric’s model of record (posted October 29, 2026) — it replaces the desk’s October 27 framework build, and tracking restarts at the October 29, 2026 close:

• Flexible and dynamic: it ranges across the entire fixed-income spectrum to choose where on the curve to sit, and whether the risk it takes is credit risk or interest-rate risk
• Goldilocks regimes: tilt toward credit — high yield and convertible bonds included; economic slowdowns: much more defensive — less credit, much more interest-rate risk (duration)
• Up to 25% in low-volatility dividend-paying ETFs for the regimes hostile to bonds — rising interest rates and inflation — when equities tend to do much better than fixed income; the sleeve holds 16.17% today (SCHD + LVHI)
• The objective: high absolute yield plus good total return — from being in the right part of fixed income, and adding equities up to 25% when it is prudent
• Five fixed-income ETFs — the framework cap — plus the two dividend-equity vehicles and cash: securities 99.03%, cash 0.97%

The model’s numbers — a desk-modeled blend of the funds’ published figures (each fund’s as-of date differs): blended 30-day SEC yield ~5.3% · bond duration ~3.1 yrs (~2.6 yrs across the whole model — the dividend equities carry no bond duration and the AAA CLO sleeve floats). Credit mix, % of the model: Treasury & agency-backed ~17 · AAA securitized ~12 · other investment grade ~26 · high yield ~20 · emerging-market debt ~12 · dividend equities ~16 · cash & other ~−2 net (the flexible funds run small negative cash from unsettled trades and margin; the model’s own cash is +0.97%).

Fund inputs: Eaton Vance fact sheet, September 30, 2026 — XAGG SEC yield 6.47%, duration 3.94 yrs · TCW fact sheet, August 31, 2026 — FLXR 5.52%, 3.54 yrs · BlackRock, September–October 2026 reporting — BINC SEC yield ~5.65%, duration ~3.23 yrs, ~34% below investment grade · BondBloxx, October 28, 2026 — XEMD SEC yield 6.06%, spread duration 3.93 yrs · CLOX SEC yield 4.82% (October 2026) — Eldridge publishes no effective duration for CLOX; its floating-rate AAA CLOs are modeled at ~0 rate duration, stated here rather than estimated silently · SCHD 3.18% and LVHI 3.13% SEC yields (October 2026).

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026: 0.00% as of October 29, 2026 close — price-only; bond funds pay income the price return does not capture.

Eric’s model of record (posted October 29, 2026) — it replaces the desk’s October 27 ladder build, and tracking starts at the October 29, 2026 close:

• The core is a ladder built for certainty: defined-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds that mature at par — holders get paid regardless of the fixed-income volatility in between, and each rung is held to its December maturity (2028 · 2030 · 2034)
• Active exposures sit around the core — tilting toward more credit or more interest-rate exposure as conditions warrant — but the core itself is certainty and safety
• This is the lower-volatility, lower-beta fixed-income option, with slightly less yield than Hybrid Income
• The two models are deliberately different tools for one asset class: this one is a paid-at-par ladder core and stability; Hybrid Income is higher yield, more flexibility and likely more turnover, with low-volatility dividend equities that can shift the book toward equity-linked fixed income for total return — together they cover whatever fixed-income environment arrives
• Ladder core 58.60% (the three iBonds Dec term corporate ETFs) · active satellites 40.79% (XAGG + JAAA + XEMD) · securities 99.39%, cash 0.61%

The model’s numbers — a desk-modeled blend of the funds’ published figures (each fund’s as-of date differs): blended 30-day SEC yield ~5.6% · duration ~3.4 yrs across the model (the ladder core itself ~3.6 yrs; the AAA CLO sleeve floats, at 0.23 yrs). Credit mix, % of the model: investment-grade corporate ladder 58.60 · active multi-sector 23.27 · AAA securitized 9.49 · emerging-market debt 8.04 · cash 0.61. Inside the ladder (iShares, September 30, 2026): BBB ~55 · A ~36 · AA ~8 · AAA ~0.5 — investment grade throughout.

Fund inputs: iShares fact sheets, September 30, 2026 — IBDT SEC yield 5.00%, effective duration 1.56 yrs · IBDV 5.41%, 3.29 yrs · IBDZ 5.87%, 6.03 yrs · Eaton Vance fact sheet, September 30, 2026 — XAGG SEC yield 6.47%, duration 3.94 yrs · Janus Henderson — JAAA SEC yield 4.52% (September 30, 2026), effective duration 0.23 yrs (October 27, 2026) · BondBloxx, October 28, 2026 — XEMD SEC yield 6.06%, spread duration 3.93 yrs (XEMD enters the duration blend on its published spread duration).

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Single-name CDS levels are largely paid-tier data; unsourceable levels are labeled as bond-spread proxies and nothing is estimated. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

How to read the line:

• The 10-month moving average is this team’s long-term demarcation in every market it tracks — the same line that runs the S&P 500 call
• Above it: bull regime, stay invested
• The line adjudicates at the month-end close: a month-end close below it flips the desk’s long-term trend call and portfolios get defensive
• The line itself — built from the last ten month-end closes — is shown on each card as the flip level
• Crypto trades 24/7, so prices here are the latest available, stamped above; the line moves only when a month ends

52 / 100 · Neutral — the Digital Assets complex, inaugural board, October 27, 2026.

• Long-term structure intact on all three majors
• Short-term structure broken across the board
• Flows split
• The treasury complex at discounts but with no forced-selling cascade
• Regulation a headline negative (the CLARITY Act is dead for 2026) over a structural positive (the March 2026 commodity classification)
• Sentiment neutral — a recovery under audit

• mNAV = market cap ÷ the value of coins held — this desk’s core gauge for the treasury names
• Above 1.0×, the flywheel works: issue shares at a premium, buy coins, repeat
• Below 1.0×, it breaks — and at the inaugural board it is broken nearly everywhere
• The top-10 Bitcoin treasuries hold 1,098,290 BTC between them, and they still added on the week, but only at the margin

Sources: Bittery leaderboard (October 26, 2026), company filings and releases (BitMine 8-K, October 26, 2026), The Block Ethereum treasury tracker (October 25–26, 2026), filings-based SOL figures as dated in the notes. SOL mNAV by company is not yet sourceable on a like-for-like basis — it is labeled UNKNOWN, never estimated. Values use reference prices near $80K BTC / $2,356 ETH / $101 SOL at the as-of dates.

The desk’s read (DWF Labs, October 2026):

• ETF investors have sold into 7 of the 8 Bitcoin sell-offs of 15% or more since the spot ETFs launched in January 2024 — ETF holders are not the dip buyers they are assumed to be
• Flows here are a lagging sentiment gauge, not a bottom signal
• This desk will not call a bottom off inflows

Source: Farside Investors via Cointelegraph, October 24–26, 2026; Friday figures provisional at publication.

Market structure at the inaugural board: Bitcoin dominance 59.4% of a $2.71T total crypto market; Crypto Fear & Greed at 50 — Neutral (CoinGecko, Cointelegraph, October 26–27, 2026). For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Please read: Fast Twitch is a hypothetical model trading portfolio, tracked in the open from October 25, 2026. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Live — 3 open trades in the $1M hypothetical portfolio

• The Trading Portfolio — $1,000,000, hypothetical — opened Monday, October 26, 2026
• Basket A, the capitulation basket, booked the first three completed triggers at Monday’s closes — the first qualifiers since the inaugural October 23 scan found none
• All three are quality Timeless names washed out to new two-week lows, with momentum no longer confirming the decline
• Positions are marked at their entry closes on day one, so performance starts flat by construction; marks update at each close from here

Deployed: $499,987.44 in equal thirds. Cash reserve: $500,012.56 — held back for future capitulation triggers.

• Next in line — BKNG (Booking Holdings): RSI 35.3, three-tenths above the gate, at a new two-week low with divergence live on both indicators — the first call on the reserve if it completes
• Also tracked: APP (RSI 36.1, divergence live but not at a two-week low)
• CEG (RSI 40.3, at a new low with divergence live, still above the gate)

Scan method: daily adjusted closes; RSI(14) Wilder; MACD line (12, 26); divergence measured in 10-trading-day blocks against the prior block’s low — the team’s standing divergence definition. All positions are hypothetical paper trades at official session closes.

• The complement to capitulation: quality Timeless names in confirmed uptrends — price above the 10-month average, the 50-day above the 150-day
• Pulled back to RSI 50–55, the band where uptrends tend to stabilize
• Bought on strength’s pause, not on collapse

• The first scan, at the October 26, 2026 close, found four qualifiers: VRTX (RSI 51.7), ROST (52.8), SHW (54.4) and NUE (54.5)
• None has been bought — Basket B holds no positions
• Any funding would come from the cash reserve, and only on Eric’s decision

• Universe: Timeless 5/10/25 names only — trade what the team already owns and follows, with a bias to adding to names already held.
• Oversold: RSI(14) at or under 35.
• At the low: price prints a new two-week low.
• Divergence: at that low, RSI and MACD both make higher lows than at the prior two-week low — momentum stops confirming the decline.
• Process: Pete originates, Trent confirms the technicals, Eric gives the go-ahead. Every approved trade is recorded and tracked on this tab.

• Identifying oversold quality is the easy half of this trade
• Timing the buy — and more importantly the sale — is the hard half, so no Fast Twitch position opens without its exits written down first
• Every trade logs its exit plan at entry:

• Mean-reversion exit: sell when the oversold condition normalizes — RSI back through roughly 55–60. The trade was the snap-back, not a new long-term holding.
• Stop exit: a new closing low with the divergence failing ends the trade — the turn thesis was wrong.
• Time stop: about 15 trading days. If the snap-back has not come, the capital goes back to work elsewhere.

Open and closed trades will be listed here with entry and exit prices, dates and the logged exit plan, as they occur.

For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

300 breadth: Improving

• Share of the universe trending up at the October 29, 2026 close — long-term 56%, intermediate 52%, short-term 72%
• The short-term trend is the strongest horizon at 72% and the intermediate the weakest at 52%
• Direction compares breadth with September 29, 2026

Long-term: price above its 10-month average. Intermediate: the 50-day average above the 150-day average. Short-term: price above its 25-day average. Percentages use the names with enough price history at each horizon — 296 of 300 long-term, 296 intermediate, 300 short-term.

The CIO sets the verdict, owns the portfolios and the track record, and has the final say on everything the team publishes.

Muse — Team Leader & Chief of Staff

Runs the team day to day: coordinates the desks and specialists, consolidates their work into the weekly CIO summary, and keeps the scoreboard, portfolios and episodes on schedule.

• Every major market lens is covered by a named specialist: all eleven GICS sectors, plus macro, technicals, style factors, real assets, the trading tape, social buzz, fixed income, digital assets and asset allocation
• Nothing on the scoreboard is nobody’s job — every reading on this site has a name, a desk and a chain of command behind it

The Heat Map is published for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation or an offer to buy, sell, or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The content is general in nature: it is not tailored to any individual reader’s financial situation, objectives, or needs, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Before making any investment decision, do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor who knows your situation.

The Heat Map is not a registered investment adviser. It is not affiliated with any registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or investment fund, and it does not manage money for anyone. Visiting this site, reading its content, listening to its podcasts, or joining its email list does not create an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship of any kind. The Heat Map is an educational project: a public test of what an AI analyst team can do for financial research and investing education. Its purpose is to give readers one place to follow updated market information, so that they can make their own decisions.

The Heat Map is produced by an AI analyst team working under human direction. The views expressed are the team’s opinions as of the date shown on each page, report, or episode, and they are subject to change without notice as market conditions and the underlying data change. Information is drawn from sources the team believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The team has no obligation to update any score, report, or opinion after its publication date, except as part of its regular weekly and quarterly cycles.

All content on this site is generated by AI systems working under human direction. AI-generated research can contain errors — including incorrect figures — even when it reads with confidence. Any figure that matters to a decision should be verified against primary sources before it is relied on.

Every portfolio shown on this site is a hypothetical model portfolio — the Timeless 10 lists and the Timeless 25 (tracked live from October 23, 2026), the Optimal Portfolio (from October 25, 2026), the rule-based models on the Smart Beta page, the Hybrid Income model (in its current form from October 29, 2026) and the Safety & Certainty ladder model (in its current form from October 29, 2026), and the Trading Portfolio (from October 26, 2026). None of them is an actual trading account, and none represents the results of any client or investor. Nothing is backtested in the live track records, and no performance is shown for any period before each portfolio’s start date; the historical lookbacks shown are labeled hypothetical backtests wherever they appear. Returns are price-return only: dividends are excluded. Returns reflect no commissions, fees, taxes, or slippage. An actual account would incur some or all of these, and its results would differ. Holdings, entry prices, and every change are disclosed in full on the site as they occur.

• Each Timeless portfolio is equal-weighted (10% per name in a Timeless 10; 4% per name in the Timeless 25).
• One name, Universal Music Group (UMG NA), carries an UNKNOWN entry price because its October 23, 2026 Amsterdam close could not be verified; it is excluded from return calculations until a verified close is obtained.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Forward-looking statements — including views on the direction of markets, economic regimes, interest rates, and individual companies — are opinions only; they are not guarantees, predictions of fact, or promises of future performance, and actual outcomes may differ materially.

The Heat Map is an independent research publication. It is not a fund, and nothing on this site is an offer for any fund or ETF or constitutes fund marketing material. References to companies and securities are research opinions of the analyst team only.

You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Verify any figure that matters to you against primary sources, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor before acting. By using this site you acknowledge that The Heat Map is an educational publication and not a substitute for professional advice tailored to you.