The Heat Map
Brands, macro, trading ideas, long-term stock ideas and research — from one expert team, always on.
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WHAT IS THE HEAT MAP?

A full investment team, working for you.

Macro, sectors, bonds, technicals and portfolios — distilled into decisions and updated daily. And we’re just getting started: new portfolios and models are added all the time.

WATCH: WHAT THE HEAT MAP PROVIDES · 1:49 Skip to today’s verdict ↓

Daily X-Ray

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 close — updated each weekday from the daily capital markets brief

Biggest events

  1. A $63B financing sent chips up 3%. Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley will fund an SPV buying Broadcom accelerators to lease to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. Broadcom +4.1% was the top S&P contributor; semis +3.02%. Nasdaq +1.18% to 26,477.81; S&P 500 +0.60% to 7,722.60.
  2. Boeing capped the Dow. A wider-than-expected loss sent BA −10.69%; the Dow finished flat at +0.03% to 52,377.57. Leadership was narrow — six of eleven sectors fell and the equal-weight S&P gained only +0.11%.
  3. Yields held just under 5% into the FOMC. 10-year 4.99%, 2-year 4.74%, 30-year 5.32%. A hold is about 90% priced for Wednesday — the December language is the trade. Durable goods +1.8% and consumer confidence 91.7 beat expectations.
  4. Oil slipped below $100 on Tehran diplomacy. WTI settled $99.90, −1.83%; Brent $113.88, −1.7%. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iran in Tehran; Gulf exports still run near 65% of pre-war levels and Israel voted today.
  5. Volatility eased; breadth stayed soft. VIX −4.5% to 17.56. Advancers led only modestly, and the Nasdaq printed 127 new lows vs 26 new highs — a strong index day on a narrow base.

Biggest movers up

  • JetBlue (JBLU +19%) — post-earnings rebound
  • SoFi (SOFI +13%) — earnings beat on consumer lending
  • CoreWeave (CRWV +8%) — rode the Anthropic compute deal
  • Royal Caribbean (RCL +6.5%) — beat and raised full-year guidance
  • UPS (UPS +5.75%) — beat and raised its revenue outlook

Biggest movers down

  • Boeing (BA −10.69%) — wider-than-expected quarterly loss
  • Xylem (XYL −8.8%) — trimmed full-year forecasts
  • Whirlpool (WHR −8%) — missed and cut guidance
  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW −3%) — post-earnings
  • Meta (META −1.5%) — the equity-raise overhang continued

Key news and what’s next

  • Coca-Cola beat and raised its full-year outlook for a third straight quarter — EPS growth now seen at 11%+
  • After the close, Visa beat on profit ($3.48 vs $3.44), raised its dividend 16%, but guided to slower FY27 growth — shares −1.1% after hours
  • PayPal beat on profit and raised its outlook; the revenue miss was forgiven, shares +2%
  • Bitcoin reclaimed $80,600; Ripple won OCC approval for a U.S. national trust bank
  • Ahead: the FOMC decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, Alphabet and Microsoft after Wednesday’s close, Amazon and Apple Thursday, and U.S. midterms November 3

Stay invested, defensibly tilted.

The long-term trend is still up and the S&P 500 sits above its 10-month average, so we stay invested — but the regime is shifting from Quad 2 toward Quad 3, so the portfolio leans defensive: quality, staples, health care, utilities and gold over rate-sensitive and cyclical risk.

Risk panel Readings as of the October 26, 2026 close

The regime: exiting Quad 2, tipping into Quad 3

  • Growth is slowing while inflation re-accelerates — that is Quad 3 — and Quad 4 is dominant across 2027
  • In the slowing-quad overlap, the assets that tend to win are gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis
  • Energy and power are a Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry
  • Long bonds are the 2027 prize once the hiking cycle credibly ends
  • We are underweight financials, discretionary ex-quality, high yield, leveraged loans and small caps
Tactical Risk Score
47.4%
Recession Watch
ALL CLEAR 8 green · 0 amber · 0 red
Business Cycle
Expansion
Credit Cycle
Expansion
10-Year Treasury
4.99%
VIX
18.39
S&P 500
7,676.77

Where do you want to go?

Coverage The team never sleeps on a story — every wire, print and podcast, swept on a schedule

Earnings Radar

Daily
  • Every reporter across the 310-name brand universe, plus foreign sector-ETF holdings
  • Every figure verified against the primary release; sector QuickTake episodes carry the owning desk’s opinion

News Sweeps

3× daily
  • CNBC and Bloomberg headline wires, Reuters and the Asian wires — early, morning and midday
  • Asia’s overnight session covered before the US wakes up: SK Hynix’s record print was flagged pre-market on Oct 28

Bloomberg Podcasts

Every 2 hours
  • The full Bloomberg lineup swept for new episodes — Surveillance, Odd Lots, Masters in Business, The Close, Trillions, Daybreak
  • Transcripts distilled to the owning desk the same day

Flows & Tape

Daily
  • Options-flow scan for concentrated premium and one-way footprints
  • Trading-desk flags when the tape moves first

Washout Watch

Daily
  • Capitulation score and breadth extremes — $NASI included — monitored against the team’s tripwire lines

Tripwires & Event Calendar

Always on
  • FOMC decisions, major prints and month-end trend verdicts on a standing calendar
  • Nothing on it arrives as a surprise

Weekly Cycle

Weekly
  • Every desk files its week; the CIO rolls it up into the State of the Markets and the weekly podcast

The scoreboard Strength Scores, highest to lowest · Desk scores as of the Tuesday, October 27, 2026 close · refreshed daily after the close · prices update every close · tap a sector to open its desk

81–100 Exceptional 61–80 Strong 41–60 Neutral 21–40 Weak 0–20 Broken

Exiting Quad 2, tipping into Quad 3 — with Quad 4 dominant across 2027.

A quad is one of four macro regimes — every period is sorted by whether growth and inflation are rising or falling.

The call in brief

  • Regime: exiting Quad 2, tipping into Quad 3 — growth slowing while inflation re-accelerates — with Quad 4 dominant across 2027.
  • Positioning: overweight the slowing-quad overlap — gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis; energy and power are a Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry.
  • The Fed is the swing factor: a hold is about 90% priced for October 28 and the December language is the event; the 10-year Treasury sits at 4.99% and high-yield spreads at 337bp.

The quad map The four regimes at a glance — growth on the vertical axis, inflation on the horizontal

QUAD 1Goldilocks
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓

The friendliest regime — favors stocks broadly, growth names and credit.

QUAD 2ReflationLeaving now
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑

Favors commodities, energy, cyclicals and other real assets.

QUAD 4DeflationDominant across 2027
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓

Favors long bonds, gold and quality defensives; hard on cyclicals, commodities and credit.

QUAD 3StagflationTipping in now
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑

Favors gold, commodities and defensive sectors; hard on credit.

The markers flag the team’s current read. What each regime rewards in practice is set out under Optimal Positioning, further down this tab.

Macro dashboard Labeled readings — value, source and date on every panel

As of the October 26, 2026 board unless a panel states otherwise.

Rates
Fed funds3.75–4.00%
2-year Treasury4.71%
10-year Treasury4.99%
30-year Treasury5.30%
Curve — 10-year minus 3-month+0.74%
Spreads — AAA42bp
Spreads — BBB111bp
Spreads — high yield337bp
Source: Market close · Date: October 26, 2026 (curve and AAA/BBB spreads: October 23, 2026)

How to read this:

  • Every spread is measured over US Treasury bonds of similar maturity — the federal government’s risk-free rate
  • A spread of 1.00% means those corporate bonds pay one percentage point more than Treasuries — investors demand extra yield for default risk
  • AAA is the highest credit rating (the safest borrowers, the thinnest spread)
  • BBB is the lowest investment-grade rating (the widest spread before ‘high yield’)
Fed policy bias
Hawkish tilt
  • A hold is about 90% priced for October 28
  • A December hike is widely expected
  • The December language is the event — which runs against the easing-by-mid-2027 framework
Source: Market pricing · Date: As of October 26, 2026
What to expect — long-run return assumptions
Stocks 6.3% · Bonds 5.0% the Street’s base case, per year over 10 years
  • The base case is the average of published Wall Street long-horizon forecasts — the assumptions the big houses themselves build plans on
  • The bull case is the desk’s scenario: a return to long-run normal, not a boom
  • Build expectations on the base case; treat the bull case as something the market has to earn
Base case — Street averageBull case — desk scenario
Stocks
US large-cap stocks6 houses · range 3.1–9.0%
6.3%
10.0%
US small-cap stocks3 houses
7.3%
11.0%
Developed international stocks4 houses
7.2%
9.5%
Emerging-market stocks5 houses
7.2%
10.0%
Real assets & credit
Real estate (REITs)2 houses, definitions differ
7.1%
No desk bull case — base only
Investment-grade credit1 house published
6.1%
No desk bull case — base only
Bonds & cash
US bonds (Aggregate)4 houses · range 4.7–5.6%
5.0%
5.5%
High-yield bonds4 houses
6.0%
6.75%
Cash / T-bills3 houses · the bull case runs lower — rates fall in that world
3.4%
2.75%
  • The headline: in its base case the Street pays stocks only about 1.3 points a year more than bonds
  • Two of the six houses expect bonds to match or beat US stocks outright
  • A 60/40 portfolio works out to about 5.8% a year on the base case and 8.2% on the bull case
  • The bull case is normal, not euphoric: US stocks back to their long-run ~10% compounding needs earnings growth of about 8%, the shareholder yield of about 2%, and no shrinkage in valuations
  • Earned if AI productivity broadens, credit stays contained and the 10-year Treasury normalizes instead of rising
  • Private equity is left off the chart deliberately: house forecasts run from 9.2% to 15.9%, too dispersed to average honestly
Today’s earnings-yield spread — forward earnings yield 4.93% (1 ÷ 20.3 forward P/E) less the ~5.00% 10-year Treasury, October 23, 2026 close−0.07% ≈ zero

Stocks pay you nothing extra in current earnings yield over bonds today — the entire case for equities rests on future growth, which is exactly what the base and bull cases above are arguing about.

Base case: simple average of published 10-year nominal return forecasts — J.P. Morgan LTCMA 2027 edition (October 2026), BlackRock (August 2026), Vanguard (September 30, 2026), Goldman Sachs, Schwab (2026), Research Affiliates (December 31, 2025); houses per class shown on each row. Cross-check: the 43-firm Horizon Actuarial survey averages US stocks 6.5% and core bonds 4.9%. Bull case: the desk’s scenario, reviewed weekly. Compiled October 27, 2026. Illustrative and hypothetical — not a prediction; see Disclosures.
Equity valuations
Forward P/E20.3x
CAPE40.6x
Source: Market data · Date: As of October 23, 2026
Geopolitics rating
YELLOW — Cautious

Grant’s qualitative read, updated weekly — geopolitical temperature: Elevated. Drivers:

  • Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure
  • Brent $115.81
  • Russia sanctions package suspended before taking effect
Source: Grant — Politics & Geopolitics Strategist · qualitative read, updated weekly · Date: Week of October 23, 2026
Inflation
Core CPIabout 2.4–2.5%
PCE headline, year-on-year3.4%
Core PCE3.0%
TrajectoryRising, energy-led
Next PCE printOctober 29
Source: BEA (PCE) · Date: August 2026 for PCE; next PCE print October 29
US federal debt
$40.44 trillion total
Held by the public$32.6 trillion
Share of GDProughly 127%
TrajectoryRising about $5 billion a day
Debt limit$41.104 trillion
Headroomroughly $0.9 trillion
Source: U.S. Treasury · Date: October 22, 2026
Money market assets
$7.94 trillion
Change on the weekUp $21.5 billion
Institutional$4.83 trillion
Institutional, year-on-yearUp 10.2%
Source: ICI · Date: Week ended October 21, 2026
Margin and leverage
4.61% of GDP — margin debt

The highest since 1997.

Source: Margin debt as a share of GDP · Date: Latest reading on the October 23, 2026 board
Consumer savings rate
4.1% of disposable income
Amount saved$990.2 billion
July4.6%
Two-decade averageroughly 5.9%
Source: BEA · Date: August 2026
Consumer sentiment
48.0 Michigan final
Fear & Greed (market cross-check)26–27 — fear
Source: University of Michigan, final reading; Fear & Greed as the market cross-check · Date: October 2026

Optimal Positioning for Quad Regime

Scope:

Overweight — the slowing-quad overlap

  • Gold and real assets
  • Utilities, staples, health care — the defensive compounders
  • The quality factor and munis
  • Energy and power — a Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry
  • Long bonds — the 2027 prize, once the hiking cycle credibly ends

Underweight

  • Financials
  • Consumer discretionary, ex-quality names
  • High yield and leveraged loans
  • Small caps

Five triggers that change the call

  • Brent below ~$100, sustained — the inflation leg of Quad 3 weakens
  • Brent above ~$120 — the inflation shock deepens; defense goes up a gear
  • December FOMC language — whether the hiking cycle is credibly over
  • Two more soft payrolls — the growth slowdown is confirmed, Quad 4 arrives early
  • Hyperscaler 2027 cap ex guidance — the AI build-out’s trajectory, and the power trade with it

Long-term trend up. Short-term tape, softer.

Price leads fundamentals. The structure of the bull market is intact; the near-term internals say respect the tape, don’t chase it. Readings as of the October 27, 2026 close.

The rule that runs the portfolio

The 10-month moving average rule

  • One line decides the big question — judged on month-end closes against the 10-month moving average, and the response is graduated:
  • ● Structural Bull — month-end close above the line: stay invested
  • ● Market in Transition — the first month-end close below: slow portfolios down; capitulation and washout signals confirm or dispute the move to fuller defense — about 50% of the time, markets bottom in the first month after closing under the level
  • ● Bear Market — two consecutive month-end closes below: full defensive positioning rebalance
S&P 500 — October 27 close7,722.60
The line — 10-month moving average7,230.78
Distance above the line+6.8%

Status: Structural Bull

Last completed month-end (September 2026) closed above the line — 0 consecutive month-end closes below. Next verdict: the Friday, October 30 month-end close.

The tripwire

  • The verdict lands on month-end closes only — an intra-month dip below the line changes nothing
  • The first month-end close below = Transition: slow portfolios down. A second consecutive close below flips the playbook to full defense — portfolios de-risk as far as they go
  • No debate, no discretion: the line is the line

Long-term trend

UP

The structural bull market is intact.

Intermediate trend

UP

50-day average 7,697.01 above the 150-day average 7,450.91.

Short-term trend

ON THE LINE

Essentially on the 25-day average of 7,724.10 — 1.50 points below it (-0.02%), and above the 50-day average of 7,697.01: the pullback has stalled at the line.

The internals Every metric labeled with its reference universe and date

Market Technicals Strength Score52 / 100 · Neutral
VIX — October 27 close17.52Positive
10under 20 · Positive20–30 · Volatilityover 30 · Dangerous40
VIX < 20 — Positive20–30 — Volatility> 30 — Dangerous
  • Desk rule: under 20, volatility is a green light; 20–30, respect it; over 30, dangerous — the zone, not the tick, sets the posture
Stocks above their 200-day average — S&P 500 members · October 2657.8% · 289 of 500 tracked
Advance / decline — NYSEOct 26: advancers beat decliners 1.36 to 1 (Reuters)
$NASI (McClellan Summation Index) — Nasdaq · October 26−786.74
$NAMO (McClellan Oscillator) — Nasdaq · October 26+3.52
Stocks above their 20-day average — S&P 500 members · October 2773.1% · 367 of 502 tracked
Stocks above their 20-day average — Nasdaq Composite members · October 2740.7% · 1384 of 3399 tracked
Stocks above their 50-day average — S&P 500 members · October 2659.4% · 298 of 502 tracked
New 52-week highs / lows — S&P 500 members · October 268 highs / 7 lows
S&P 5007,722.60
10-year Treasury4.99%

Sources: breadth counts computed by the desk from S&P 500 member closes (Yahoo Finance daily data, October 26, 2026 close; 503 of 504 members tracked — moving-average counts use the 500–502 members with sufficient price history, and highs/lows use the 499 members with a full prior year). $NASI / $NAMO: StockCharts published readings. NYSE advance / decline: as reported by Reuters for the October 26 session. The two 20-day breadth rows (S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite members), the VIX and the 10-month state refresh after every close on the same member-close basis (Nasdaq Composite: NASDAQ-listed common stocks — test issues, ETFs and preferred shares excluded); each breadth series keeps its own history, so the 30-day comparison is always the same series against itself. VIX zones are the desk’s standing rules: under 20 Positive, 20–30 Volatility, over 30 Dangerous.

Reading the McClellan gauges The frame of reference — where the extremes sit, and what they have meant

$NASI — Summation Index · Nasdaq

−786.74 · October 26, 2026

−2,000−1,000 · washout line0+1,000 · overbought+2,000
  • The Summation Index is the running total of every day’s McClellan Oscillator — whether more stocks are rising than falling, added up over months
  • It normally lives between −1,000 and +1,000
  • Above +1,000, breadth has run hot for a long stretch: a stretched, late-stage tape
  • Below −1,000 is the washout zone — the October 2022 bear low, the October 2023 correction low and the April 2025 crash low all printed with this gauge under −1,000
  • That is why the desk’s washout tripwire sits on that line
  • Fading an extreme on this gauge means treating it as exhaustion rather than continuation: historically, the washout prints have been where forced selling ran out
  • Today’s −787 is deep in negative territory but still short of the washout line

$NAMO — McClellan Oscillator · Nasdaq

+3.52 · October 26, 2026

−200−100 · oversold extreme0+100 · overbought extreme+200
  • The Oscillator is the fast version: the gap between the 19-day and 39-day averages of daily net advances
  • It swings around zero — above it, breadth momentum is positive; below it, negative
  • The classic extreme bands are ±100 — deep panic or euphoria prints reach toward ±150
  • Past +100, buying has historically run too fast to hold that pace
  • Past −100, selling has reached panic speed and has historically marked exhaustion points
  • Extremes are reference lines, not triggers by themselves — a strong trend can hold an extreme for days
  • Today’s +3.5 sits on the zero line: no momentum extreme in either direction

The capitulation gauge

  • Capitulation Score: 2 / 100 — not armed
  • The Washout Watch only arms when the S&P 500 is at least 8% below its 52-week high; at these levels it isn’t
  • A score of 70+ would mark a washout worth buying; 85+ is historic
  • Today it says: no panic, no capitulation, no signal

Eleven desks. One scoreboard.

Every desk closes its report with a Strength Score from 0 to 100 — 0–20 broken, 21–40 weak, 41–60 neutral, 61–80 strong, 81–100 exceptional. Tap any desk for its report, score drivers and Timeless 10.

Strength Scores, ranked best to worst Board of Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · scores refresh daily after the close — tap a bar to open its desk

Reading the bar.

  • Every bar is the same width and carries the desk's Strength Score — the number and its band color
  • The technicals sit beside the bar in two blocks, each colored on its own reading
  • 10-MO: the long-term trend — the sector ETF against its 10-month average
  • 50/150: the intermediate — the 50-day over the 150-day
  • Green up, red down
  • Quad fit = the sector's fit under the expected regime (Marco's call on the Macro tab — Quad 3, tipping in now), shown beside the score, never inside it: FAVORED green · NEUTRAL gray · HEADWIND amber — it never changes the number
  • A Strong score sitting in a bear tape, like Utilities on this board, reads at a glance

How the score is built.

  • Each Strength Score is an analyst recommendation, not a formula and not a trend rating
  • The desk weighs its named drivers — cycle position, through-cycle economics, balance-sheet strength, cash generation, valuation against the sector's own ten-year history, fit with the macro regime, and what the price tape is hinting at
  • Those drivers are published, ranked best to worst, on the desk's card below
  • Bands: 0–20 Broken (avoid) · 21–40 Weak (underweight, own only the exceptions) · 41–60 Neutral (selective, stock-picking over sector bets) · 61–80 Strong (overweight candidates, add on weakness) · 81–100 Exceptional (full conviction, with a check that it is not euphoria)

Why Strong can sit in a downtrend.

  • The score is forward conviction; the Technicals column at the right of each bar is the pure tape — and the two are allowed to disagree
  • Utilities scores 72 Strong while its ETF trades under its 10-month average, with its 50-day under its 150-day — a defensive, rate-base call made into weakness
  • Industrials (66) also scores Strong, with both technical checks at No — the desk's order-book conviction leads its tape
  • Technology (76) is the mirror case: Yes on both checks, while its short-term breadth has already rolled over
  • The score says what the analyst would own; the technicals say what the tape is doing — both are printed so you can see the argument

Desk reports Same order — best to worst

The right part of the pond to fish in.

Saul reads which style factors are leading and which are lagging, tracked through the ETFs that hold them.

The read Saul’s conclusion, up front · October 27, 2026 close

Dividend leads the month at +7.3% and Freedom-weighted EM trails at −10.6% — 10 of the 32 trackers rose in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) returned −0.2%. Only 9 of the 32 are positive at every horizon: Large-cap equal weight (RSP), Value (IVE), Dividend (SCHD), Low volatility (USMV), International low-vol high dividend (LVHI), Dividend (HDV), S&P 500 premium income (GPIX), MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX), Health care (PINK). The AI-power basket is the leak: 6 of its seven trackers sit in the month’s worst twelve.

TOP 3 — leading the month

  • Dividend (HDV) +7.3% — positive at every horizon — +6.2% (3M), +15.6% (6M), +28.4% (12M)
  • Dividend (SCHD) +5.8% — positive at every horizon — +5.8% (3M), +14.6% (6M), +34.0% (12M)
  • MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX) +5.4% — positive at every horizon — +0.7% (3M), +6.7% (6M), +33.0% (12M)

WORST 3 — trailing the month

  • Freedom-weighted EM (FRDM) −10.6% — still the twelve-month leader at +37.4% — leadership unwinding from the top
  • Energy transformation (PWRD) −8.3% — negative at every horizon — −9.5% (3M), −12.0% (6M), −3.7% (12M)
  • Emerging markets (EEM) −8.0% — −2.4% over three months, +14.4% over twelve
  • Leader-to-laggard spread on the month: 17.9 points (HDV +7.3% vs FRDM −10.6%)

Factor Leadership Strength Score: 72 / 100 · Strong

Where the returns are coming from 1-month total returns, best to worst · October 27, 2026 close

Fish here:

  • Dividend (HDV +7.3% — the best tracker on the tab this month)
  • Dividend (SCHD +5.8%)
  • MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX +5.4%)
  • Low volatility (USMV +4.8%)
  • Value (IVE +3.1%)
  • Large-cap equal weight (RSP +3.0%)
  • Health care (PINK +2.5%)
  • International low-vol high dividend (LVHI +1.7%)
  • Mid-cap (IJH +0.3%)
  • S&P 500 premium income (GPIX +0.2%)
  • The only trackers up over the month — in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 0.2%

Do not fish here, for now:

  • AI power basket — 6 of its seven trackers are in the month’s worst twelve
  • Growth (IVW −2.8%)
  • Technology (XLK −3.5%)
  • Industrial renaissance (AIRR −5.9%)
  • Speculative growth (ARKK −6.6%)
  • Momentum — US (SPMO −6.8%)
  • Smart grid (GRID −7.0%)
  • AI enablers & adopters (ALAI −7.0%)
  • High beta (SPHB −7.1%)
  • Emerging markets (GEM −7.8%)
  • Emerging markets (EEM −8.0%)
  • Energy transformation (PWRD −8.3%)
  • Freedom-weighted EM (FRDM −10.6% — now the worst tracker on the tab)

Potential emerging momentum Bottoming on volume · October 27, 2026 close

What identifies it — all four, or it is not on the list:

1 · Down over one month — 117 of the 300 brands are in the washed-out pool 2 · Up over both the last two weeks and the last week — 17 names have turned 3 · Last five sessions’ volume at least 1.15× the prior twenty sessions’ pace — 84 of the 300 are running hot 4 · Close at least 2% off its ten-day low — SOFI clears it at +15.3%

Firing now — confirmed emerging momentum:

  • SOFI (SoFi Technologies, Inc.) — all four legs: −1.1% on the month, +7.6% over two weeks, volume 1.36×, close +15.3% off its ten-day low
  • UAL (United Airlines Holdings, Inc.) — all four legs: −8.1% on the month, +1.4% over two weeks, volume 1.36×, close +9.5% off its ten-day low
  • BX (Blackstone, Inc.) — all four legs: −1.5% on the month, +6.1% over two weeks, volume 1.27×, close +9.9% off its ten-day low
  • MS (Morgan Stanley) — all four legs: −4.8% on the month, +0.1% over two weeks, volume 1.22×, close +4.7% off its ten-day low
Show all the screen data

Volume at the lows (factor trackers):

  • Factor trackers: none of the 32 pass all four — none is down on the month and up on both weeks with confirmed volume
  • Volume is running hot instead — HDV 1.91×; GRID 1.53×; IVW 1.39×; QLC 1.33×; LVHI 1.24× — GRID, IVW, QLC at their lows, HDV, LVHI on strength
  • Only IWM (+1.6% last week) has turned on price among the trackers, on light volume (0.74×) — it joins the list only when volume confirms

The pass, name by name:

  • Across the 300 brands, 4 names pass all four at Tuesday’s close — BX (−1.5% on the month, +6.1% over two weeks, volume 1.27×, close +9.9% off its ten-day low); MS (−4.8% on the month, +0.1% over two weeks, volume 1.22×, close +4.7% off its ten-day low); UAL (−8.1% on the month, +1.4% over two weeks, volume 1.36×, close +9.5% off its ten-day low); SOFI (−1.1% on the month, +7.6% over two weeks, volume 1.36×, close +15.3% off its ten-day low)

Turned, volume not yet confirming:

  • 13 names are down over one month and up over both the last two weeks and the last week — SPHR +12.0% (0.58×), BLDR +9.6% (0.93×), RKT +9.3% (0.93×), JNJ +8.1% (0.88×), VRTX +7.4% (1.04×)
  • They join the list only when volume confirms

Volume at fresh lows:

  • 9 names are making fresh three-week closing lows on at least 1.15× volume — TSCO 1.76×, BA 1.75×, META 1.70×, CBRE 1.69×, NFLX 1.64×
  • A bottom needs the price turn to follow — watch, do not chase

Screen: 300-brand universe and the 32 factor trackers, adjusted closes and share volume, Yahoo Finance daily data, October 27, 2026 close. The four legs: one-month return negative (calendar month, adjusted); up over both the last ten and last five sessions; five-session volume at least 1.15× the prior twenty sessions; close at least 2% off its ten-day closing low. Climax lows are fresh fifteen-session closing lows on the same volume test. A screen is a starting list, not a recommendation. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

The factor map Total returns, dividends reinvested · October 27, 2026 close

Style factorETF1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
Reference — S&P 500, cap-weightedSPY−0.2%+3.3%+8.2%+13.5%
Reference — Nasdaq 100QQQ−3.1%+4.9%+8.8%+15.4%
Size — Mega-cap, S&P 500 Top 50XLG−1.6%+4.3%+4.5%+6.9%
Size — Mega-cap, S&P 100OEF−0.9%+3.9%+8.8%+12.1%
Size — Large-cap, equal-weightedRSP+3.0%+1.5%+8.6%+15.0%
Size — Mid-capIJH+0.3%−2.4%+1.1%+12.0%
Size — Small-capIWM−0.6%−3.5%+1.6%+13.1%
Style — ValueIVE+3.1%+3.7%+9.6%+15.0%
Style — GrowthIVW−2.8%+3.1%+6.9%+12.2%
Momentum — USSPMO−6.8%−0.7%+8.3%+16.9%
Quality — USSPHQ−1.2%−0.7%+5.0%+13.1%
Multi-factor — Quality + Value + MomentumQLC−1.1%+0.9%+7.0%+15.1%
Speculative / low qualityARKK−6.6%+19.0%+10.8%−6.1%
High betaSPHB−7.1%+1.8%+6.2%+23.7%
DividendSCHD+5.8%+5.8%+14.6%+34.0%
Low volatilityUSMV+4.8%+5.6%+10.8%+10.2%
International — Developed ex-U.S.EFA−1.9%−1.9%+3.8%+11.9%
International — Emerging marketsEEM−8.0%−2.4%−1.2%+14.4%
International — Developed ex-U.S. (reference point)FNDF−1.6%−0.1%+6.5%+25.8%
International — Emerging markets (reference point)GEM−7.8%−2.3%−0.4%+15.2%
Portfolio — International low-vol high dividendLVHI+1.7%+1.7%+9.3%+27.0%
Portfolio — High dividend, USHDV+7.3%+6.2%+15.6%+28.4%
Portfolio — S&P 500 premium income (covered-call overlay)GPIX+0.2%+3.4%+8.5%+14.7%
Portfolio — MLP & energy infrastructureMLPX+5.4%+0.7%+6.7%+33.0%
AI power basket — Smart grid infrastructureGRID−7.0%−6.7%−10.4%+6.7%
AI power basket — Energy transformationPWRD−8.3%−9.5%−12.0%−3.7%
AI power basket — Technology (also the site’s Tech sector ETF)XLK−3.5%+8.2%+18.3%+27.4%
AI power basket — Emerging markets, freedom-weighted (trades like the AI basket — see below)FRDM−10.6%−0.9%+3.1%+37.4%
AI power basket — AI enablers & adoptersALAI−7.0%+1.5%+9.6%+15.6%
AI power basket — US infrastructure developmentPAVE−1.0%−6.0%−5.7%+10.2%
AI power basket — American industrial renaissanceAIRR−5.9%−15.5%−21.3%−0.9%
Health care stability — Health care, actively managedPINK+2.5%+2.7%+15.7%+20.8%

Source: Saul’s Factor Map, October 27, 2026. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Selection: the investment process.

The tilt — the summary conclusion

Tilt: quality, dividends, low volatility and value — over high beta, momentum, small cap and emerging markets

Leadership (1-month, blended with 3): HDV +7.2% · SCHD +6.4% · USMV +5.3%

Turn watch: the last two sessions flipped to the technology and AI trade (+2.9% vs +0.5% — PWRD +3.5%), while the five-session window still belongs to quality, defensive and dividend (+0.7% vs +0.2%). A turn is forming, not confirmed — the headline flips only when the challenger takes the 1-month lead.

How the language is set — nightly, from the factor map: the headline tilt names the leading style cluster on a 1-month window blended with 3 months. A challenger leading the last two sessions prints a turn watch; leading the last five sessions confirms a turn in progress; the headline flips only when the challenger takes the 1-month lead. As of the October 27, 2026 close · refreshed after every close.

Overall posture today: YELLOW — stay invested, defensively tilted

  • Macro: Yellow.
  • Technicals: Yellow (mixed) — long-term and intermediate green, short term on the line.
  • Style momentum: Red / defensive.
  • Long-term rule says stay invested — S&P 500 above its 10-month average
  • Nothing in this funnel says chase risk today

Q1 · Macro risk — green, yellow, or red?

Answer: YELLOW

  • Quad: Quad 2 tipping into Quad 3 — Quad 4 dominant across 2027
  • Fed hawkish — about 90% priced for a hold at the Oct 27–28 meeting; December hike widely expected
  • 10-year at ~4.99%; high-yield spreads 337bp (Amber)
  • Geopolitics Elevated — Brent at $115.81; core PCE 3.0% year over year
  • Against that: Recession Watch all-clear; business and credit cycles still Expansion
  • Yellow, not red — slowing with re-accelerating inflation, not a recession call

Q2 · Technicals — are indexes above the 10-month average?

Answer: YELLOW — long-term and intermediate green; the short term is on the line

  • Long-term: green — S&P 500 close 7,722.60, 6.8% above its 10-month average of 7,230.78 (month-end closes through September 2026)
  • The 200-day average sits near 7,299 — the close is above it
  • Intermediate-term: green — the 50-day average (7,697.01) sits above the 150-day (7,450.91), by 3.3%: the intermediate structure is positive
  • Short-term: on the line — 1.50 points (−0.02%) below the 25-day average (7,724.10), and above the 50-day (7,697.01): the pullback has stalled at the line — one close above the 25-day flips the short term up
  • The 10-month rule says stay invested; the short-term tape says do not add risk aggressively
  • Month-end tripwire: a close below about 7,274 on Friday, October 30 prints the first month-end close below the line — Market in Transition; a second consecutive close below it means a bear market and full defense

Q3 · Style momentum — is it a risk-on tape?

Answer: NO — RED / DEFENSIVE

  • Green test, as specified: high beta (SPHB) outperforming low volatility (USMV), and discretionary (XLY) beating staples (XLP)
  • High beta still fails at 1 month: SPHB −5.5% vs USMV +5.3%
  • And XLY +5.9% vs XLP +5.9% on the site's 1-month sector-ETF set — discretionary has only drawn level with staples, which is not a pass
  • Dividend (SCHD +6.4%) and value (IVE +3.8% vs growth IVW −2.1%) confirm it
  • This step stops the funnel from chasing high beta, even when a 3-year Sharpe table would look tempting — see Q7

Q4 · Where shall we fish? The pairs

Pair1 month3 monthsWinner
Large (XLG) vs Small (IWM)−2.5% vs −1.8%+3.4% vs −4.6%Large — 3 months is decisive
U.S. (SPY) vs Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)−0.8% vs −2.5%+2.7% vs −2.5%U.S.
U.S. (SPY) vs Emerging (VWO)−0.8% vs −6.1%+2.7% vs −3.6%U.S. — VWO computed from Yahoo adjusted closes; the site’s EEM proxy reads −9.1% at 1 month, same verdict, different magnitude (FTSE vs MSCI index composition)
Value (IWD) vs Growth (IWF)+2.5% vs −4.2%+3.0% vs +2.3%Value — computed from Yahoo adjusted closes; the site’s IVE vs IVW proxies read +2.9% vs −3.7% at 1 month, same verdict
Equal weight (RSP) vs Cap weight (SPY)+2.9% vs −0.8%+1.4% vs +2.7%Equal weight on momentum, cap weight on 3 months — tilt equal weight, do not overcommit

Q4 answer today: U.S., value, large, with an equal-weight tilt.

Q5 · Top 3 sector ponds — 1-month sector-ETF momentum

Pond1-month ETFTimeless 10 breadth scoreWhy it is here
1. Energy (XLE)+12.25%95.0Best 1-month sector and near-perfect Timeless breadth — the Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry
2. Utilities (XLU)+7.69%55.0Defensive plus AI power demand; breadth improved from 5.0 in September
3. Staples (XLP)+7.19%100.0Perfect Timeless breadth — 10 of 10 green — and the defensive leg of Q3

Q6 · Fish first — stocks in the top ponds

Team picks first: Timeless names with a green Trend, in the top ponds

  • Energy — green: XOM, CVX, EOG, LNG, SU, CNQ, SHEL, TTE, EQNR (9 of 10; WMB is yellow)
  • Utilities — green: DUK, SO, AEP, IBDRY (NEE, SRE and NGG are yellow)
  • Staples — green: COST, WMT, PG, CL, KO, MNST, PM, CART, OR, NESN (10 of 10)
  • Analyst favs in these ponds: none in the latest public Baird actions.

Q7 · The same funnel for ETF models

Model tilt today: defensive, dividend, value, equal weight, U.S. overweight

  • Overweight: USMV, SCHD / VIG, IWD, RSP, QLC
  • Plus XLE, XLU and XLP for the sector ponds
  • Underweight / avoid now: SPHB, SPMO, ARKK-type high beta and momentum
  • Also avoid now: IWM small cap, and EEM / VWO emerging markets
  • The opposite of what a 3-year Sharpe table alone would suggest for momentum — that conflict is intentional
  • Resolved in favour of the 1-month funnel (Q3–Q5), not the 3-year table
CategoryBest in breed (3Y Sharpe)SharpeSortinoAlpha vs SPY (ann.)BetaFunnel fit today
Low volatilityUSMV0.951.35+1.76%0.47Wanted
DividendVIG1.091.60+1.06%0.72Wanted — SCHD has the higher alpha (+5.00%) on a slightly lower Sharpe (1.05)
ValueIWD1.281.87+4.27%0.72Wanted
GrowthIVW1.021.47−1.05%1.23Watch — growth is losing Q4
Equal weightRSP0.941.39−0.21%0.78Wanted (tilt, not overcommit — see Q4)
U.S. large / Mega-capOEF1.161.69+0.89%1.03Wanted (core)
Developed ex-U.S.FNDF1.211.76+6.14%0.72Underweight — best in breed, wrong geography today
Emerging marketsGEM0.811.16+1.10%0.86Avoid now
Small capIWM0.670.99−4.91%1.12Avoid now
Mid capIJH0.640.94−5.46%0.99Watch
U.S. momentumSPMO1.221.77+5.26%1.26Avoid now — 3-year leader, 1-month loser (−8.1%)
U.S. qualityQUAL1.031.51−0.81%0.91Watch
Multi-factorQLC1.261.84+2.25%0.97Wanted
High betaSPHB0.791.12−5.47%1.56Avoid now
Sector — EnergyXLE0.620.84+5.87%0.45Wanted (pond 1)
Sector — UtilitiesXLU0.741.05+6.23%0.33Wanted (pond 2)
Sector — StaplesXLP0.600.87+4.65%0.19Wanted (pond 3)
Sector — TechnologyXLK0.941.34−1.53%1.48Watch — sector breadth is cooling
Sector — DiscretionaryXLY0.500.72−9.42%1.16Watch
Sector — FinancialsXLF1.001.42+3.14%0.76Watch — breadth improved, momentum middling
Sector — CommunicationXLC0.741.05−1.91%0.86Avoid now
Sector — IndustrialsXLI0.881.29−0.57%0.89Avoid now
Sector — MaterialsXLB0.480.70−4.82%0.77Watch
Sector — Real EstateXLRE0.500.71−0.49%0.52Watch
Sector — Health CareXLV0.600.87+1.59%0.44Wanted — breadth 85, momentum +5.03% at 1 month

The Optimal Portfolio: positioning is the commentary.

Built by the analyst team. Every name chosen on research, tracked live from entry.

Please read: The Optimal Portfolio is a hypothetical model portfolio, entered at the Friday, October 23, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Performance: since inception · Oct 25, 2026: +0.32% as of indicative · October 28, 2026 11:30 AM ET · 15-min delayed · official at the close — price-only, dividends excluded, weights as published.

Goals & guardrails The rules the portfolio lives by

  • Dynamic and unconstrained. No equal weights, no sector or country bands — fully diversified or highly concentrated, as the evidence dictates.
  • The trend gate. Owns only assets in bull trends on both the intermediate term (50-day average above the 150-day) and the long term (price above its 10-month average). The short term is reported on every holding — it never gates. Cash is exempt by nature.
  • Max drawdown focus: 5%. Sizing and ballast are built so a plausible stress month stays near 5% (this mix stress-tests at ≈4.9%). A focus, never a guarantee.
  • Return goal: minimum 10% per calendar year, in an all-weather environment — measured at every monthly review, alongside the drawdown focus.
  • Cash doctrine. Cash above 10% only for real market or world carnage, an anticipated near-term event, or recession. Otherwise cash is dry powder for equities and higher beta — and if the wait stretches, it migrates into better-yielding safe bonds.
  • Protect and participate. Protection first — with big bets allowed when the team’s confidence is high.
  • Monthly reviews. A holding that loses intermediate or long-term trend status is out at the review — no exceptions, no averaging down.
  • The CIO votes. Eric votes the asset mix and the selections. The team proposes, with its closest calls and dissents on the record.

How this portfolio is managed Fully dynamic — the mix can go to extremes when the evidence does

  • Fully dynamic — no fixed weights. Equities, bonds, alternatives and cash can each run from 0% to 100%. There is no neutral mix to drift back to: 100% equities, 100% bonds or a large cash position are all normal outputs of the process when the evidence calls for them.
  • What 100% equities takes — technicals: the S&P 500 above its 10-month average with room to spare and its intermediate trend up; breadth strong, with about 65–70% or more of index members above their own 200-day averages and rising; the McClellan Summation Index positive — and no euphoria extreme.
  • What 100% equities takes — macro: a growth regime (Quad 1, or strong early Quad 2), zero warnings from the Recession Watch’s leading indicators, and the LEI rising.
  • What 100% equities takes — inflation and rates: core inflation gliding toward target (a three-month pace at or under about 2.5%), the Fed neutral to easing, and the 10-year yield stable or falling.
  • What 100% equities takes — fundamentals and credit: high-yield spreads under 3% and not widening, earnings revisions positive, and stocks paying at least as much in forward earnings yield as the 10-year Treasury pays in interest.
  • What 100% equities takes — sentiment: constructive, not euphoric — Fear & Greed under about 75. Fear is fine; greed is the disqualifier.
  • The graduated line: the first month-end close below the S&P 500’s 10-month average puts the portfolio in Transition — slow down, partial defense, washout signals confirm or dispute. A second consecutive month-end close below flips it maximally defensive, regardless of every other input. The line is the line.
  • Inflation picks the defensive asset: if inflation is falling (Quad 4), the corner is bonds and duration. If inflation is still rising (Quad 3), the corner is cash and T-bills — bonds do not protect when inflation is the problem.
  • When it changes — monthly: a full review every month. Paul builds the proposed slate from the desks’ work, the team votes on the record, and Eric, the CIO, decides.
  • When it changes — off-cycle: only on pre-committed tripwires: the month-end 10-month verdict, an FOMC surprise against what was priced, a confirmed regime flip, high-yield spreads through 5%, or a breadth washout or euphoria extreme.
  • The contrarian override — the bottoms clause: at a major washout, the portfolio does not wait for the data to turn good. Maximum oversold conditions plus a real catalyst — a central-bank intervention, a policy reversal — plus the first turn from horrendous to merely less bad can take it aggressively back toward equities even while the headline data is still poor. Those are historically the highest-return pivots there are, and they never wait for confirmation.
  • The override acts in days: that class of trigger gets a special vote within days of printing — never deferred to the monthly review, because a bottom priced in panic does not stay available for a month.
  • Monitored daily, traded on evidence: the team watches these gauges every day, so a tripwire is never missed. Day-to-day trading lives in the Trading Portfolio — this portfolio moves on reviews and tripwires, not on daily noise.

Current mix & holdings Inaugural slate · entered October 23, 2026 · reviewed monthly

Equities · 46% Bonds · 26% Alternatives · 11% Cash · 17%
The read:
  • The long-term and intermediate trends are up, so the portfolio participates
  • The index is short-term down into FOMC week and the October 30 month-end print, so 43% sits in cash, front-end Treasuries and AAA floaters
  • The largest single equity is energy, the shock’s beneficiary
HoldingTickerClassWeightEntry (Oct 23, 2026)IntermediateLong-termShort-termRole in the mix
SPDR EnergyXLEEquity10%69.33UP +8.0%UP +23.7%UP +7.0%The bet — the shock’s earnings stream; strongest long-term cushion in the sleeve
SPDR Health CareXLVEquity8%179.28UP +7.9%UP +14.9%UP +4.3%Defensive growth — participates without the beta
SPDR S&P 500SPYEquity8%759.97UP +3.8%UP +5.9%DOWN −1.3%Core market exposure, sized down into a binary week
Schwab DividendSCHDEquity7%35.27UP +4.6%UP +12.9%UP +5.3%Equity ballast — dividend income, beta 0.52
SPDR StaplesXLPEquity6%88.26UP +1.0%UP +7.1%UP +5.2%Lowest-beta equity (0.19); Quad 3 ballast
SPDR TechnologyXLKEquity4%183.23UP +7.0%UP +10.7%DOWN −5.4%Growth toehold — sized small while its short term is broken
Nasdaq 100QQQEquity3%704.40UP +3.9%UP +5.2%DOWN −4.4%Mega-cap growth toehold
1–3Y TreasurySHYBond14%81.50UP +0.2%UP +0.6%UP +0.4%Primary ballast — front-end yield without duration risk
AAA CLOJAAABond12%50.61UP +1.0%UP +2.0%UP +0.2%Floating-rate ballast-plus — 1-year max drawdown −0.4%
US Copper IndexCPERAlternative6%39.06UP +3.6%UP +4.1%DOWN −2.2%The only metal the gate admits — grid and AI-power demand
Broad CommoditiesDBCAlternative3%34.10UP +7.1%UP +21.3%UP +3.4%Inflation-shock hedge
Bitcoin ETFIBITAlternative2%45.96UP +9.7%UP +9.8%DOWN −2.8%Satellite only — capped hard by the drawdown discipline
T-Bills 0–3MSGOVCash17%—ExemptExemptUPThe November fund — ~4.7% carry while the team waits

Intermediate: 50-day average vs 150-day average (gap shown). Long-term: entry close vs its 10-month average. Short-term: close vs its 25-day average. Every non-cash holding passes the gate on computed figures, October 23, 2026. Gold, long-duration Treasuries and the team’s core income funds are all excluded this month — each fails at least one trend test, and the gate does not make exceptions.

  • Follow along: the monthly Optimal Portfolio report and its episode of The Heat Map podcast carry every change, the CIO’s vote and the reasoning
  • Tactical trading lives separately, on the Trading tab

Portfolios: The Timeless Suite

The Timeless 25: the best of the best.

Please read: Timeless portfolios are hypothetical model portfolios tracked live from October 23, 2026. Returns are equal-weighted and price-only (dividends excluded; no fees, taxes, or slippage). They do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

About the 5-year lookbacks below Hypothetical backtest

  • Every portfolio panel on this page — the Timeless 25 and each Timeless 10 — includes a 5-year lookback
  • Read it for what it is: a hypothetical backtest that applies today’s holdings to the five years from October 22, 2021 to October 23, 2026
  • It is NOT the live track record — live tracking started October 23, 2026, and the live since-inception returns shown above each lookback are the actual record
  • The lookback also carries survivorship and look-ahead bias: these holdings were chosen in October 2026 with full knowledge of the past five years, so the exercise flatters the portfolios by construction
  • Even with that bias, Staples and Real Estate trailed SPY over this window — that is in the panels too, unedited

The Timeless 25 4% per name · entry October 23, 2026 · next review January 22, 2027

TickerCompanyCountryEntry priceCurrent priceSince inception · Oct 23, 2026WeightTrendLong-termIntermediateShort-term

The eleven Timeless 10s Tap a desk to see its ten, with entry prices

Smart Beta

Built by rules, not opinions. Nine formulas run over the 300-brand universe — nobody picks these names.

The read The conclusion, up front · October 28, 2026

Four sessions in, the rules are paying for risk and charging for defense — momentum leads everything, and the defensive mirror trails even its own benchmark

  • Momentum Leaders is the early leader by both measures: +6.50% since entry (the concentrated 10: +6.92%) against SPMO’s +3.54% — +2.95 pts of excess, +3.37 pts on the 10. The brand-universe build is outrunning the momentum index it follows
  • Also ahead of their benchmarks: Risk-On (+2.62% vs SPY +0.93% — +1.69 pts), Cash Flow Aristocrats (+1.62 pts over COWZ — earned by falling less: the model is −0.14%, COWZ is −1.76%), Value Leaders (+0.89 pts over IWD) and Dividend Growth Leaders (+0.24 pts over VIG)
  • The laggard is the mirror image: Risk-Off is −2.19% since entry and −1.64 pts behind USMV — the weakest return and the weakest excess on the tab. Quality Leaders (−0.94 pts vs QLC) is the other clear trailer, and the concentrated 10s of both dividend models lag their indexes (Dividend −1.44 pts, International Dividend −1.23 pts) while their 25s track them
  • The honest frame: four sessions is the tape talking, not a track record — none of this is evidence the formulas work yet. The first real test is the January 29, 2027 data cut, when every model rebalances on fresh data and the early excess either survives a full quarter or it doesn’t

Current prices and since-entry returns below are as of indicative · October 28, 2026 11:30 AM ET · 15-min delayed · official at the close (price-only, local currency).

Please read: These are hypothetical model portfolios, entered at the Thursday, October 22, 2026 close and tracked from there. Entry prices are the listing’s local-currency close — the currency is shown next to every price. Operating metrics are from Fiscal.ai, pulled October 24, 2026, stated as Fiscal.ai reports them; they have not been checked against company filings, and each row shows its own metric period. *Forward revenue growth is a calculated figure — Fiscal.ai’s next-fiscal-year revenue estimate against the last reported year — not a Fiscal.ai field. Blank cells mean the data is not available, never zero. These portfolios do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The nine smart beta portfolios 90-day rebalance · Next data cut January 29, 2027

ModelConceptVersions
Momentum LeadersThe strongest 12-1 month risk-adjusted momentum in the index, on S&P 500 Momentum (SPMO) rules.25 + 10
Quality LeadersThe index's highest profitability, efficiency and cash-flow ranks, on Northern Trust Quality (QLC) rules.25 + 10
Value LeadersThe cheapest names on sector-relative earnings yield, book-to-price and cash-flow-to-EV, on MSCI Enhanced Value (VLUE) rules.25 + 10
Cash Flow AristocratsNon-financials with the highest free-cash-flow yields, plus quality and FCF-growth factors, on COWZ-style rules.25 + 10
Dividend LeadersUS dividend payers whose free cash flow covers the dividend plus net debt repayment, on a 50/50 SCHD/LVHD blend.25 + 10
Dividend Growth LeadersUS companies with 10+ straight years of dividend increases, top yielders excluded, on VIG rules.25 + 10
International Dividend LeadersNon-US dividend payers ranked on volatility-adjusted yield, on LVHI-style rules, unhedged.25 + 10
Risk-OnThe highest downside beta, cyclicality and momentum in smaller names — built to track risk appetite.25 + 10
Risk-OffThe lowest downside beta and the most defensive mix in larger names — Risk-On's mirror image.25 + 10

Source: model construction and Fiscal.ai operating metrics, export of October 24, 2026; entry prices October 22, 2026 close, local currency. Models rebalance every 90 days on data cuts at the end of January, April, July and October. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Own the yield. Respect the credit.

Fixed Income Opportunity Bill’s score — yield compensation against risk · October 23, 2026

59 / 100 · Neutral — at the top of the band. This market’s offer is two offers stapled together: one generous, one insulting.

Risk-free yield
82The risk-free rate pays you to wait — bills and the belly yield 4.2 to 5.0% with no credit risk.
Securitized & floating carry
74Agency mortgages and AAA CLOs are the best risk-adjusted carry on the board.
Inflation protection
64Breakevens still price a world where the oil shock fades — protection is not expensive.
Duration value
52Fairly paid in the belly, hostage-priced at the long end — buyable in stages, not in lunges.
Credit compensation
28High yield at a 3.40% spread is a benign-world price for a Quad 4 world. The insulting half of the offer.

The yield board U.S. Treasury yields and credit spreads · October 26, 2026 close

InstrumentYield / spreadDesk note
Fed funds target3.75–4.00%After the September 2026 hike. December language is the next trigger.
3-month bill4.22%Cash is a position, not an accident.
2-year Treasury4.71%Prices a Fed that is not done.
Belly (3–10 yr)4.82–4.89%The perch: nearly the 10-year’s yield at half the term-premium exposure.
10-year Treasury4.99%Tripwires both ways: 5.40% extends duration, 4.40% harvests it.
30-year Treasury5.30%Term premium ~1.1 — the long end is paid, but the marginal buyer is price-sensitive.
Curve (2s10s)+28 bpSteepening led by the long end — a supply and term-premium story, not a growth story.
High yield spread (OAS)3.37%Cycle-stingy. No broad high yield at this price — the Hybrid book holds only a 5% short-duration quality sleeve (SHYG).

Yields: U.S. Treasury, October 26, 2026 close (3-month bill and belly: October 23, 2026). High yield spread: ~3.37%, October 26, 2026. This board refreshes with the site’s market updates.

How to read this:

  • Every spread is measured over US Treasury bonds of similar maturity — the federal government’s risk-free rate
  • A spread of 1.00% means those corporate bonds pay one percentage point more than Treasuries — investors demand extra yield for default risk
  • AAA is the highest credit rating (the safest borrowers, the thinnest spread)
  • BBB is the lowest investment-grade rating (the widest spread before ‘high yield’)

Hybrid Income Opportunities Bill’s framework portfolio · rebuilt October 27, 2026 · entered October 27, 2026 close · estimated yield ~5.1% · bond duration ~4.3 yrs

Performance: since inception · Oct 27, 2026: -0.01% as of indicative · October 28, 2026 11:30 AM ET · 15-min delayed · official at the close — price-only; bond funds pay income the price return does not capture.

SleevePositionVehicleWeight
Core — go-anywhere activeBlackRock Flexible IncomeBINC30%
Eaton Vance Income OpportunitiesXAGG15%
Carry & front endAAA CLOs (floating rate)JAAA15%
Short-duration high yield (quality)SHYG5%
DurationLong TreasuriesTLT10%
Low-vol dividend equitiesSchwab U.S. Dividend EquitySCHD15%
Franklin Low Volatility High DividendLVHD10%
Avoided todayBroad high yield · bank loans · convertibles · preferreds—0%
On watchPIMCO Multisector Bond ActivePYLD—

The framework build (October 27, 2026):

  • At most five fixed-income ETFs
  • Up to 25% in low-volatility dividend equities chosen by sector fit — SCHD and LVHD for their healthcare, staples and utilities weight into 2027
  • Coupon plus total return; positions move on pre-committed tripwires, not opinions

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Safety & Certainty Bill’s defined-maturity ladder portfolio · built October 27, 2026 · estimated yield ~4.7% · duration target 3.0–4.5 yrs

  • Every dollar has a date
  • The core is a ladder of BlackRock iShares iBonds — defined-maturity bond ETFs whose holdings mature in a stated year and return principal at maturity
  • Hold each rung and the volatility in between is noise by construction
SleevePositionWeight
Ladder coreTreasury iBonds rungs 2027–2031 (IBTH · IBTI · IBTK)40%
Investment-grade corporate iBonds rungs 2027–2031 (IBDS · IBDT · IBDU · IBDV)30%
SatellitesTIPS iBonds (IBIF, Oct 2029) — certainty in real terms10%
AAA CLOs, floating rate (JAAA)10%
Bills & short Treasuries (SGOV) — the liquidity sleeve10%

Rules:

  • Never sell a rung early
  • At each maturity, roll the proceeds into the new back rung
  • Satellites never exceed 30%
  • Nothing below investment grade inside the ladder

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Tripwires Pre-committed — the desk acts on these, not on opinions

HY OAS at 5.00%
  • The short-duration quality sleeve doubles (SHYG 5% → 10%), funded from JAAA
  • At 6.50%: full credit position — a core slot rotates to a high-yield mandate, and PYLD’s promotion review opens
10-year at 5.40%
  • With breakeven at or under 2.50: extend aggressively
  • TLT scales up from 10%, funded from the core, duration toward six years
10-year at 4.40%
  • Harvest: duration profits taken, model back toward three and a half years
  • This desk sells duration strength as willingly as it buys weakness
SHYG kill switch (two-key)
  • SHYG exits the same day if BB spreads gap through 3.00%, or if triple-C keeps widening (past 13.5%) and BB starts following — dispersion ending is contagion starting
  • Amended October 27, 2026: triple-C alone at 13.56% with BB calm at ~2.05% is the bottom cracking by itself, not contagion
December FOMC
  • A hike adds to JAAA — floating coupons get paid more — and delays extension one meeting
  • Language that the cycle is done fires Stage 2 extension immediately

The AI credit watch Bill’s board — what the smart market says about the AI build-out · sweep of October 25, 2026

NameThe credit tapeRead
CoreWeave5-yr CDS ~1,090 bp · bonds 75–83¢ at 15–16.5%The equity story says sub-one-year paybacks; the bond market charges distressed prices. Both cannot be right.
OracleCDS ~322 bp, +178 bp this yearDowngraded to BBB− in July. The AI trade’s weakest investment-grade link.
Meta5-yr CDS at a record 114.5 bp (Oct 22)A fortress balance sheet crossing 100 bp is a regime signal, not a Meta problem.
NVIDIACDS 101–126 bp at recordsEven the tollbooth pays more for protection than it ever has.
The systemCDX IG ~60–62 bp · HY OAS 3.40% · fortress cash above $500BStress is name-specific, not systemic — yet. Bill’s flip rule: any three of his seven warning signs, or the fortress names cracking together.

Single-name CDS levels are largely paid-tier data; unsourceable levels are labeled as bond-spread proxies and nothing is estimated. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Above the line — on audit.

Price & regime board Prices refresh with the site’s market updates

How to read the line:

  • The 10-month moving average is this team’s long-term demarcation in every market it tracks — the same line that runs the S&P 500 call
  • Above it: bull regime, stay invested
  • The line adjudicates at the month-end close: a month-end close below it flips the desk’s long-term trend call and portfolios get defensive
  • The line itself — built from the last ten month-end closes — is shown on each card as the flip level
  • Crypto trades 24/7, so prices here are the latest available, stamped above; the line moves only when a month ends

The demarcation chart Monthly closes against the 10-month line · 36 months plus the current month

The desk Nolan — Digital Assets · stood up October 27, 2026

52 / 100 · Neutral — the Digital Assets complex, inaugural board, October 27, 2026.

  • Long-term structure intact on all three majors
  • Short-term structure broken across the board
  • Flows split
  • The treasury complex at discounts but with no forced-selling cascade
  • Regulation a headline negative (the CLARITY Act is dead for 2026) over a structural positive (the March 2026 commodity classification)
  • Sentiment neutral — a recovery under audit
Bitcoin
58Strongest structure of the three: +9.4% over its 10-month line at the inaugural close, dominance 59.4%, the treasury bid intact. Held back by the short-term break and October ETF selling.
Ethereum
45Weakest of the three: thinnest cushion over its line (+4.7%), four straight weeks of spot ETF outflows — while its treasury companies accumulate and stake at scale.
Solana
48The highest-beta major: deepest cycle drawdown (−79.5%), sharpest October leg (−20.7%), smallest and most fragile treasury complex.
▶

DIGITAL ASSETS — Bitcoin After the Correction: Long-Term Trend Intact, Short-Term Broken

The desk’s first report, October 27, 2026: the correction measured properly — peak, trough, and which trend lines held — the treasury companies at a discount, and the CLARITY Act’s real status. Hear it on The Heat Map show feed, and find every episode on the Podcasts tab.

The Heat Map · October 2026 · also live on Spotify
17:12

The treasury companies Coins held and the premium gauge · as of October 25–26, 2026 — refreshes with the desk’s weekly board

CompanyCoinCoins heldApprox. valuemNAVDesk note
Strategy (MSTR)BTC848,517~$67.9B0.89×The anchor: ~4.0% of all Bitcoin. Average cost ~$75,446. Last buy 267 BTC on October 25 — at a discount to NAV, issuing equity to buy coins destroys the per-share math, so the buys have shrunk to token size. Enterprise mNAV is 1.16× including debt and preferreds.
Metaplanet (3350.T)BTC44,000~$3.5B0.59×The cautionary tale: average cost ~$98,454 is underwater, and October’s ¥52B convertible issue went to repaying BTC-backed loans and buying back shares — deleveraging, not accumulating.
Twenty One (XXI)BTC43,514~$3.5B0.55×No accumulation since its December 2025 listing. Tether/iFinex hold 58.8% of the equity and 71% of the vote — the discount here is governance as much as Bitcoin.
Strive (ASST)BTC43,000~$3.4B1.04×The exception: +6,182 BTC in the week to October 26 — the week’s only big buyer, and the only top name still at a premium. The one flywheel that still turns.
MARA (MARA)BTC35,577~$2.8B0.93×Sold 15,133 BTC in March 2026 to service debt — the miner-treasury that already showed what a discount regime forces.
BitMine (BMNR)ETH6,051,933~$14.3B0.43×The Ethereum treasury company of record: 4.95% of all ETH, 99% of the way to its stated 5% goal, ~5.23M ETH staked. Chairman Tom Lee of Fundstrat is the key person to follow on this name — his public calls are standing desk intake. Last week it spent $45.9M buying back its own shares against $24.6M of ETH: at 0.43×, the cheapest ETH it can buy is its own stock.
SharpLink (SBET)ETH868,699~$2.0B0.74×The number-two ETH treasury, staking-led, at a discount like the rest of the complex.
Ether Machine (via DYNX)ETH496,712~$1.2B0.15×The deepest discount in the complex — a pending-combination vehicle priced as an option, not a treasury.
Forward Industries (FWDI)SOL8,501,298~$859MUNKNOWNThe largest SOL treasury, as of September 30, 2026 (fiscal Q4 release, October 1): +948,601 SOL in the quarter.
DeFi Development (DFDV)SOL~2.39M~$241MUNKNOWNSeptember 14, 2026 disclosure. Launched a $300M preferred program and a SOL-backed credit initiative in September.
Upexi (UPXI)SOL2,340,000~$236MUNKNOWNTracker figure. Acquired its SOL at ~$325M of cost — underwater at today’s price.
Solana Company (HSDT)SOL2,300,000~$232MUNKNOWNTracker figure. Cost ~$455M — deeply underwater; the fragile end of the smallest complex.
  • mNAV = market cap ÷ the value of coins held — this desk’s core gauge for the treasury names
  • Above 1.0×, the flywheel works: issue shares at a premium, buy coins, repeat
  • Below 1.0×, it breaks — and at the inaugural board it is broken nearly everywhere
  • The top-10 Bitcoin treasuries hold 1,098,290 BTC between them, and they still added on the week, but only at the margin

Sources: Bittery leaderboard (October 26, 2026), company filings and releases (BitMine 8-K, October 26, 2026), The Block Ethereum treasury tracker (October 25–26, 2026), filings-based SOL figures as dated in the notes. SOL mNAV by company is not yet sourceable on a like-for-like basis — it is labeled UNKNOWN, never estimated. Values use reference prices near $80K BTC / $2,356 ETH / $101 SOL at the as-of dates.

Spot ETF flows Week of October 19–23, 2026 · Farside Investors — refreshes with the desk’s weekly board

Bitcoin ETFs — the week
+$301.2M net
  • Bought early, sold late: +$1,074.7M Monday–Wednesday, then −$773.5M Thursday–Friday as price retreated
  • October to date is still −$314M
Ethereum ETFs — the week
−$220.7M net
  • A fourth consecutive weekly outflow — the longest ETH ETF losing streak of the year
  • Even as ETH treasuries keep accumulating
Solana ETFs — October
~−$68M
  • A soft month for the newest complex
  • Morgan Stanley’s MSOL — the first US bank-affiliated spot Solana ETP, with staking — launched July 28, 2026
  • The leading SOL ETF passed ~$1B of assets in September

The desk’s read (DWF Labs, October 2026):

  • ETF investors have sold into 7 of the 8 Bitcoin sell-offs of 15% or more since the spot ETFs launched in January 2024 — ETF holders are not the dip buyers they are assumed to be
  • Flows here are a lagging sentiment gauge, not a bottom signal
  • This desk will not call a bottom off inflows

Source: Farside Investors via Cointelegraph, October 24–26, 2026; Friday figures provisional at publication.

On the desk’s watch Pre-committed — what fires the next report

Friday, October 30 — month-end closesThe inaugural board’s first adjudication: Bitcoin vs its ~$73.5K line, Ethereum vs ~$2,232, Solana vs ~$93.00, at the October close.
ETF flows, dailyWhether Bitcoin’s late-week selling runs into a second week — and whether Ethereum’s four-week outflow streak breaks.
Treasury mNAV, weeklyStrategy’s gross mNAV vs 1.0×; BitMine vs 0.43×. Any name issuing equity at a premium again is the flywheel returning — the desk’s earliest all-clear.
The regulatory fileThe CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote on September 15, 2026 (49–50) and expires with this Congress on January 3, 2027 — JPMorgan sees a possible 2027 return, not a 2026 one. What advances instead: the SEC/CFTC March 2026 joint interpretation (BTC, ETH and SOL classified as digital commodities), the CFTC’s comment window on leveraged retail crypto (open to December 14, 2026), and GENIUS Act stablecoin rules effective by January 18, 2027.

Market structure at the inaugural board: Bitcoin dominance 59.4% of a $2.71T total crypto market; Crypto Fear & Greed at 50 — Neutral (CoinGecko, Cointelegraph, October 26–27, 2026). For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Fast Twitch: trade only the layups.

Please read: Fast Twitch is a hypothetical model trading portfolio, tracked in the open from October 25, 2026. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Status Trading Portfolio · October 26, 2026 close

Live — 3 open trades in the $1M hypothetical portfolio

  • The Trading Portfolio — $1,000,000, hypothetical — opened Monday, October 26, 2026
  • Basket A, the capitulation basket, booked the first three completed triggers at Monday’s closes — the first qualifiers since the inaugural October 23 scan found none
  • All three are quality Timeless names washed out to new two-week lows, with momentum no longer confirming the decline
  • Positions are marked at their entry closes on day one, so performance starts flat by construction; marks update at each close from here
TickerNameEntry · Oct 26 closeSharesPosition valueTrigger at entry
CBRECBRE Group$122.881,356.33$166,665.83RSI 34.8 vs 33.2 at the prior low · MACD −2.65 vs −4.13 · 28.4% below its 52-week high
MELIMercadoLibre$1,668.7299.87$166,655.07RSI 32.5 vs 31.3 · MACD −12.49 vs −48.27 — the strongest divergence of the three · 29.3% below its 52-week high
NFLXNetflix$63.902,608.24$166,666.54RSI 33.5 vs 31.1 · MACD −1.98 vs −2.51 · 44.8% below its 52-week high

Deployed: $499,987.44 in equal thirds. Cash reserve: $500,012.56 — held back for future capitulation triggers.

  • Next in line — BKNG (Booking Holdings): RSI 35.3, three-tenths above the gate, at a new two-week low with divergence live on both indicators — the first call on the reserve if it completes
  • Also tracked: APP (RSI 36.1, divergence live but not at a two-week low)
  • CEG (RSI 40.3, at a new low with divergence live, still above the gate)

Scan method: daily adjusted closes; RSI(14) Wilder; MACD line (12, 26); divergence measured in 10-trading-day blocks against the prior block’s low — the team’s standing divergence definition. All positions are hypothetical paper trades at official session closes.

Basket B — Momentum Pullback Scan only · no positions booked

  • The complement to capitulation: quality Timeless names in confirmed uptrends — price above the 10-month average, the 50-day above the 150-day
  • Pulled back to RSI 50–55, the band where uptrends tend to stabilize
  • Bought on strength’s pause, not on collapse
  • The first scan, at the October 26, 2026 close, found four qualifiers: VRTX (RSI 51.7), ROST (52.8), SHW (54.4) and NUE (54.5)
  • None has been bought — Basket B holds no positions
  • Any funding would come from the cash reserve, and only on Eric’s decision

The trigger All three legs, or no trade

  • Universe: Timeless 5/10/25 names only — trade what the team already owns and follows, with a bias to adding to names already held.
  • Oversold: RSI(14) at or under 35.
  • At the low: price prints a new two-week low.
  • Divergence: at that low, RSI and MACD both make higher lows than at the prior two-week low — momentum stops confirming the decline.
  • Process: Pete originates, Trent confirms the technicals, Eric gives the go-ahead. Every approved trade is recorded and tracked on this tab.

Exit discipline Pre-committed at entry — the standing discipline

  • Identifying oversold quality is the easy half of this trade
  • Timing the buy — and more importantly the sale — is the hard half, so no Fast Twitch position opens without its exits written down first
  • Every trade logs its exit plan at entry:
  • Mean-reversion exit: sell when the oversold condition normalizes — RSI back through roughly 55–60. The trade was the snap-back, not a new long-term holding.
  • Stop exit: a new closing low with the divergence failing ends the trade — the turn thesis was wrong.
  • Time stop: about 15 trading days. If the snap-back has not come, the capital goes back to work elsewhere.

Open and closed trades will be listed here with entry and exit prices, dates and the logged exit plan, as they occur.

For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

The 300 Index.

A well-researched 300-stock list of leading companies tied to the global consumption theme across consumer spending, business spending, and government spending.

300 breadth Direction and trend status across the whole universe · October 27, 2026 close

300 breadth: Improving

  • Share of the universe trending up at the October 27, 2026 close — long-term 53%, intermediate 53%, short-term 62%
  • The short-term trend is the strongest horizon and the long-term the weakest: a universe bouncing hard that has not yet repaired its long-term trend
  • Direction compares breadth with September 25, 2026

Long-term: price above its 10-month average. Intermediate: the 50-day average above the 150-day average. Short-term: price above its 25-day average. Percentages use the names with enough price history at each horizon — 296 of 300 long-term, 296 intermediate, 300 short-term.

SectorDirectionLong-term % upIntermediate % upShort-term % upNames
All 300 namesImproving53%53%62%296
MaterialsNeutral50%100%50%2
EnergyImproving100%80%90%10
Consumer StaplesImproving65%58%87%31
Health CareImproving73%65%85%26
Real EstateImproving57%29%57%7
Information TechnologyNeutral78%76%51%37
FinancialsImproving62%78%62%37
Consumer DiscretionaryImproving40%39%58%83
UtilitiesImproving20%0%60%5
Communication ServicesGetting worse19%38%32%21
IndustrialsNeutral35%35%54%37
Ticker Name Sector Price 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Trend Long-term Intermediate Short-term

Hear the team.

Every episode leads with its subject, so you can scan and pick your topic. The show is live on Spotify, and you can subscribe in any podcast app with the RSS feed.

The Timeless portfolios

Launch week — October 23, 2026

The week, in writing.

After Friday’s close, every desk’s observations flow up to the CIO and are consolidated into one weekly summary. This is the archive, newest first.

Weekly Capital Markets Summary Latest edition first — week moves and Friday-daily moves, each labeled

CIO Weekly Brief archive

One team. Every lens covered.

The Heat Map is produced by a named team with a clear chain of command — a human CIO at the top, a team leader running the desks day to day, and a specialist accountable for every sector and every market lens the board tracks.

Coverage The team never sleeps on a story — the systems running behind the board

Earnings Radar

Daily
  • Every reporter across the 310-name brand universe, plus foreign sector-ETF holdings
  • Every figure verified against the company’s primary release before it ships
  • Sector QuickTake episodes group each sector’s prints with the owning desk’s opinion

News Sweeps

3× daily
  • Early, morning and midday sweeps of the CNBC and Bloomberg headline wires, Reuters and the Asian wires
  • Scanned for anything that moves a sector, trips a wire or touches a tracked portfolio
  • The overnight Asia session is covered before the US wakes up — SK Hynix’s record print was flagged pre-market on Oct 28

Bloomberg Podcasts

Every 2 hours
  • The full Bloomberg podcast lineup swept for new episodes: Surveillance, Odd Lots, Masters in Business, The Close, Trillions, Daybreak and more
  • Transcripts distilled to the owning desk the same day

Flows & Tape

Daily
  • Options-flow scan for concentrated premium and one-way footprints
  • Trading-desk flags when positioning moves before the story prints

Washout Watch

Daily
  • Capitulation score and breadth extremes — $NASI included — monitored against the team’s tripwire lines

Tripwires & Event Calendar

Always on
  • FOMC decisions, major prints and month-end trend verdicts tracked on a standing calendar
  • Desk tripwires watched against the same calendar — nothing on it arrives as a surprise

Weekly Cycle

Weekly
  • Every desk files its week: scores, drivers, what changed
  • The CIO rolls it up into the State of the Markets and the weekly podcast

Org chart How the team fits together

  • Eric
    Chief Investment Officer
    • Muse
      Team Leader & Chief of Staff
      • Strategy & Signals
        • Marco
          Macro Strategist
        • Bill
          Head of Fixed Income Models
        • Trent
          Technical Analyst, CMT
        • Saul Rosenberg
          Style Factors
        • Reed
          Real Assets
        • Pete
          Prop Trader
        • Steph
          Social Buzz
        • Nolan
          Digital Assets
        • Grant
          Politics & Geopolitics
      • Sector Desks
        • Tom
          Technology & AI
        • Dana
          Consumer Discretionary
        • Stan
          Consumer Staples
        • Hannah
          Health Care
        • Frank
          Financials
        • Carl
          Communication Services
        • Ivan
          Industrials, Defense & Power
        • Ethan
          Energy
        • Matt
          Materials
        • Rosa
          Real Estate
        • Uma
          Utilities
      • Portfolio & Communication
        • Paul
          Portfolio Management & Asset Allocation
        • Mike
          Marketing Director

Leadership

Eric — Chief Investment Officer

Human · Final say

The CIO sets the verdict, owns the portfolios and the track record, and has the final say on everything the team publishes.

Muse — Team Leader & Chief of Staff

Runs the team day to day: coordinates the desks and specialists, consolidates their work into the weekly CIO summary, and keeps the scoreboard, portfolios and episodes on schedule.

Strategy & Signals The cross-market lenses

Marco

Macro Strategist

The quad framework: where the economy is, where it is headed, and what wins and loses in each regime.

Bill

Head of Fixed Income Models

Owns every fixed-income call: which bond asset classes to own, and through which ETFs. The bond market is the smart market — Bill’s read factors into every CIO synthesis.

Trent

Technical Analyst, CMT

Trend, breadth and internals across long, intermediate and short timeframes — price leads fundamentals.

Saul Rosenberg

Style Factors

What the market is rewarding: size, growth versus value, momentum, quality, US versus non-US.

Reed

Real Assets

Commodities and hard assets — gold, energy and the physical side of the market.

Pete

Prop Trader

The short-term lens: options gamma positioning, fast-money favorites and trading setups.

Steph

Social Buzz

What consumers and trading communities are hot and cold on — buzz as a leading indicator.

Nolan

Digital Assets

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana against the 10-month line, the crypto treasury companies and their premiums, spot ETF flows, and the regulatory file led by the CLARITY Act.

Grant

Politics & Geopolitics Strategist

Elections worldwide and their market effects, the US political situation and the midterm power dynamic, tariffs, and the live bill tracker — the CLARITY Act’s afterlife included. Grant owns the team’s Geopolitics rating.

Political / geopolitical light: YELLOW — Cautious

Sector desks All eleven GICS sectors — tap a desk to open its page

Tom

Technology & AI desk

Dana

Consumer Discretionary desk

Stan

Consumer Staples desk

Hannah

Health Care desk

Frank

Financials desk

Carl

Communication Services desk

Ivan

Industrials, Defense & Power desk

Ethan

Energy desk

Matt

Materials desk

Rosa

Real Estate desk

Uma

Utilities desk

Portfolio & Communication

Paul

Head of Portfolio Management & Asset Allocation

Turns the macro view, the technicals and the desks’ work into allocations — and co-builds the Timeless 25 with the CIO.

Mike

Marketing Director

Builds the messaging: how the team’s markets work and portfolios reach clients and investors, clearly and on time.

Breadth of coverage

  • Every major market lens is covered by a named specialist: all eleven GICS sectors, plus macro, technicals, style factors, real assets, the trading tape, social buzz, fixed income, digital assets and asset allocation
  • Nothing on the scoreboard is nobody’s job — every reading on this site has a name, a desk and a chain of command behind it

Disclosures

What The Heat Map is, what it is not, and the basis on which everything here — scores, portfolios and track record included — should be read.

Educational and informational purposes only

The Heat Map is published for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation or an offer to buy, sell, or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The content is general in nature: it is not tailored to any individual reader’s financial situation, objectives, or needs, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Before making any investment decision, do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor who knows your situation.

Not an investment adviser

The Heat Map is not a registered investment adviser. It is not affiliated with any registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or investment fund, and it does not manage money for anyone. Visiting this site, reading its content, listening to its podcasts, or joining its email list does not create an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship of any kind. The Heat Map is an educational project: a public test of what an AI analyst team can do for financial research and investing education. Its purpose is to give readers one place to follow updated market information, so that they can make their own decisions.

Who produces this

The Heat Map is produced by an AI analyst team working under human direction. The views expressed are the team’s opinions as of the date shown on each page, report, or episode, and they are subject to change without notice as market conditions and the underlying data change. Information is drawn from sources the team believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The team has no obligation to update any score, report, or opinion after its publication date, except as part of its regular weekly and quarterly cycles.

All content on this site is generated by AI systems working under human direction. AI-generated research can contain errors — including incorrect figures — even when it reads with confidence. Any figure that matters to a decision should be verified against primary sources before it is relied on.

Model portfolios are hypothetical

Every portfolio shown on this site is a hypothetical model portfolio — the Timeless 10 lists and the Timeless 25 (tracked live from October 23, 2026), the Optimal Portfolio (from October 25, 2026), the rule-based models on the Smart Beta page, the Hybrid Income model and the Safety & Certainty ladder model (both from October 27, 2026 in their current form), and the Trading Portfolio (from October 26, 2026). None of them is an actual trading account, and none represents the results of any client or investor. Nothing is backtested in the live track records, and no performance is shown for any period before each portfolio’s start date; the one historical lookback shown is labeled a hypothetical backtest wherever it appears. Returns are price-return only: dividends are excluded. Returns reflect no commissions, fees, taxes, or slippage. An actual account would incur some or all of these, and its results would differ. Holdings, entry prices, and every change are disclosed in full on the site as they occur.

  • Each Timeless portfolio is equal-weighted (10% per name in a Timeless 10; 4% per name in the Timeless 25).
  • One name, Universal Music Group (UMG NA), carries an UNKNOWN entry price because its October 23, 2026 Amsterdam close could not be verified; it is excluded from return calculations until a verified close is obtained.

Past performance and risk

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Forward-looking statements — including views on the direction of markets, economic regimes, interest rates, and individual companies — are opinions only; they are not guarantees, predictions of fact, or promises of future performance, and actual outcomes may differ materially.

No affiliation with any fund

The Heat Map is an independent research publication. It is not a fund, and nothing on this site is an offer for any fund or ETF or constitutes fund marketing material. References to companies and securities are research opinions of the analyst team only.

Your responsibility

You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Verify any figure that matters to you against primary sources, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor before acting. By using this site you acknowledge that The Heat Map is an educational publication and not a substitute for professional advice tailored to you.

Get The Heat Map updates

The Heat Map keeps growing — new portfolios and new models are being added all the time. Join the list and we’ll email you what’s new: portfolio and model launches, major updates, and the week’s highlights. Information and updates only — unsubscribe anytime.